5/1/07 FCST: IN/OH

[Jim Hunt]

Tuesday looks to have a typical squall line storms preceeding an advancing low and cold front. Dewpoints will be 60+ by early afternoon and some isolated storms ahead of the squall line could produce tornadoes.

No specific location for now other than north central Indiana after I get off of work.

 

[Justin Rudicel]

Ya its does look like a typical classic squall line type event. Not to sure about the isolated cells ahead of the main line. I think the convergence will be weak and cap will be strong enough to keep anything firing except along the front. However if we get dewpoints to pool to above 64 or so we could see one or two supercells embedded in the line. These could produce very large hail and maybe a brief tornado especially across eastern Ohio. If the cap holds until later in the day we could see a couple more descrete cells in eastern Illinois to central Indiana region. If they go linear like they very well could its all over for any descrete tornadic or large hail threat. It will quickly turn into microbust/straightline damaging winds.

I do plan on chasing if conditions do remain non-linear. As of now like you Jim I haven't picked out a spot to chase. However gas at $3 I have a feeling I will stay near home until l see a nice and juicy storm to go after.

 

[tom hanlon]

I think this one is a tricky enough forecast that it is hard to rule anything out until we get closer to the event. With that in mind I tend to invest a modest effort of about 3-6 hours of driving into this one.

I see a few elements that can make an event out of this squall line.

First is dew points and low LCL's I see a reasonable chance that dew points in some areas will be very high. Low LCL and a chance for at least some shear could make for a surprise.

In addition I see tonight and todays activity along the front to have some potential depending on the convergence of boundaries... I have some hope.

Also , I need to look at the 24 hour precipitation maps but large portions of this area may have gotten some rainfall today. That moisture combined with the heating of Tuesday may add to the mix.

I like OH/IN border but I have yet to look at much in the way of forecast Skew/T's outside of OH. Once I get to look at Indiana I may move west.

Too close to pass up.

--
Tom H

 

[John A. Sellers]

Wo'nt be off work till 3:30,so will monitor weather conditions and determine which direction to go.And yes with the price of gas it might not be to far.

 

[rdale]

All on track this morning, with the overnight convection staying to the north of the concerned area and plenty of sunshine in place with high clouds only drifting through IL/IN and the thick stuff north in Michigan.

Dews may be a smidge high (again) but even keeping them in the mid-upper 50's still generates more than ample CAPE. I don't see much hope for pre-squall individual cells, just a nice line late afternoon through northern Indiana and into northern Ohio.

I'll try to be in Angola after lunch, that way I can shoot east along the turnpike if it's a late bloomer, south along I-69 (Ft Wayne is where I'd probably prefer being but...) or north into my DMA's southern counties if the threat drifts north of the state line.

Some elevated cells over southern LkMi formed as I wrote this - but I'm not expecting them to be a negative for the latter day chase.

 

[Jim Hunt]

Things look to be going north of my location. I think southern MI will also be in for some activity later in the afternoon.

 

[Johnathan Brouwer]

Considering I live in Fort Wayne, this chase will be nice on the gas tank.

I am looking at a target area approx 40 miles east of Fort Wayne. Puts me clear of the city and able to adjust....

Look on the spotternetwork to see my exact location.

KC9INJ is my username

 

[rdale]

Moisture actually a bit better than the models were indicating with low-60's dew points, I'm in Auburn IN along I-69 near US6 awaiting... Still looking set for a nice squall line. N8GSK.

 

[Johnathan Brouwer]

Looks like we are going to shift our target area, instead of east we going to head a bit SW of Fort Wayne for the initiation.