4/9/08 FCST: TX / OK / KS

[Bill Hark]

After reviewing the morning model outlooks and data, I am not inclined to shift very far from my original early morning target. Most of central Texas is covered in clouds though there is a hint of clearing near San Angelo according to the satellite. I do see an interesting ?boundary in a SW to NE direction through Reagan and Sterling counties. Another terminates in Concho county. Surface winds are backing with 60 degree dewpoints reaching San Angelo and Brady. I still think the storms will be more discreet farther south. At present, I will shift my target slightly eastward to Bronte (intersection of 158 and 277). I am expecting some good storms with tornadic potential.

Bill Hark
Disclaimer: Sitting at work since I couldn't change my schedule to chase.

 

[Paul Redmond]

I too like things further south. Looking at latest RUC models, there appears to be a possible dry line bulge near San Angelo by 5 pm CDT, in close proximity to juicy 65 + dew points. On the plus side, there appears to be a helicity bullseye over central ok with 300 plus H values through much of central texas, down to Uvaldi, and a second 400 bullseye over Sanderson. The warm front does not appear to be moving far north The negatives are the cloud cover over the warm sector as already noted by others and all the hills that make it called the hill country. Not the greast chasing country. Trying to target the dryline/warm font bullseye, My target is Junction with the intention of heading north on 83 as things develope. The nice thing about 83, is that there are a number of easting options further north, and if things later prove more interesting to the south towards the I-10/SR-90 corridor, there is the option of blasting south. I also fear that 281 is too far east for the action. The only thing I dont like is heading west on I-10. I hate that road. Its like riding a sea sick roller coaster with all those hills and poorly engineering roadway. Good luck to all, and stay safe.

 

[Billy Griffin]

I still wouldn't rule out the warm front boundary just yet. The ongoing elevated convection appears to, finally, be jumping off and north of the front, thus becoming much more elevated hail producers. Any boundaries left behind later today could locally enhance an isolated tornado threat, just as we saw Monday night!

True, the more "classic" setup is going to be likely further south, where daytime heating can be sustained throughout the day, but with better backed winds along the WF boundary and just south, I'd still expect enough clearing by late this afternoon to get some significant convection. IF this can happen, I would expect another round of late afternoon and all night convection with the possibility of embedded SUPS riding the warm front boundary in a NNE direction; perhaps training cells.

Bottom line... I wouldn't rule out the I-44 corridor, late this evening, in Oklahoma just yet, (Lawton ~ Oklahoma City ~ Tulsa) at least for those who do not or cannot drive to San Angelo, TX. ;-)

Good luck, everyone. Be safe!