4/6/10 FCST: NE, IA, IL, MO, KS, OK,

[Buddy W Bradley]

I agree w Chris about the backing winds and more discreet cells. Models show broken line of storms till well past 10pm in northern Oklahoma, into eastern Kansas and western Missouri, before becoming more of a squall line w embedded lewps/ bows after that. I don't get off work until 5pm today. Then Bryant Burough and I will be leaving Springfield Missouri to Nevada or possibly as far west as Chanute. I really like the area around El Dorado Ks to Emporia, but darkness may become an issue for me. I look for a Tornado Watch to go up in eastern Ks after 4pm (IMO). Some models show storms firing as early as 4pm in e. central KS.

 

[cstrunk]

I think the warm front in Iowa is going to produce some nice storms this afternoon. The atmosphere seems primed. We have some nice clearing along and south of the warm front, which is slowly drifting north. It is currently near I-80, just north of DSM. There is a nice southeasterly component to surface winds along the front.

There are areas of 3000+ J/kg SBCape in southern Iowa. With clearing along the warm front, I expect CAPE values to continue growing towards the central Iowa area. Shear is also very impressive along the front, mostly 50+ knots with several areas of 70+ knots effective shear.

Any storm we can get to fire and ride the warm front through central Iowa seems likely to produce.

TARGET: Boone, IA.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Family commitments will keep me home today, and I hate having to leave a system and drive back west to get home. But I think central IA will be a good play today. Cin should erode around 20 – 21z and fcst cape values of ~2500 j/kg, along with pooling moisture should be enough to get things going. The low should stall just SW of DSM, with the warm front extending east around the I-80 corridor. I would look for backing surface winds just to the E-NE of the low in the warm sector and track storms NE as they cross the boundary. I would start this afternoon in DSM or just a little east in Altoona. Good luck to all out and about.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

This looks like a classic "supercells hit the warm front, tornado, and die north of the front" situation in Iowa. Thankfully there is clearing north of the front which should allow for some destabilization and the ability for tornadoes to sustain themselves north of the front for a short time.

Watch surface obs, find the triple point, and sit just east of there. Should be a fun day!

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Initiation has started north and east of Wichita. Watching a tower explode thats part of a line from SW to NE, possibly the front. Im having a friend type this as i am at work.

 

[Mike Smith]

After issuing a meso saying "tornado watch likely" SPC ten minutes later issued a severe thunderstorm watch for NW MO and SE KS (including KC and ICT).

Short line of thunderstorms forming from Burns to Valley Center with a nice little cell just west of Potwin.

There is an interesting boundary junction in southwest Sedgwick Co. Any cell forming along that boundary intersection might have a chance to rotate.

CELL NEAR POTWIN WENT FROM 32 DBZ TO 66 DBZ IN TEN MINUTES!

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

We were headed towards bartlesville,ok but look at early initiation makes me think I need to get closer to I-35. Headed west. Liking the ingredients. Lets hope the cap keeps it a bit longer.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Yeah Mike I notice that too. Given the wind fields though this looks to be a sit and let them come to you chase. Storms should be screaming off to the NE.

 

[Chris Gullikson]

Concerned about the WF across Iowa having too steep of a thermal gradient with the storms having a brief window for being tornadic before becoming prolific hail producers north of the boundary. I do like the localized backing along the WF but do not like the veered flow in the warm sector.

Almost to Albert Lea MN, will be dropping south towards DSM. Good luck to those who are out.

 

[Michael Riedl]

Sitting in El Dorado Waiting for school to get out so I can go out on the storms. Its a bad feeling where you see initiation of to the north but can't get out there.....

 

[Jason Bolt]

Even though they are screaming along, this is one time the turnpike may be a great place to chase. They are moving parallel to I-35 so well that if one got on the pike at El Dorado you could probably drive right along the cell all the way to Topeka.