4/25/04 FCST: OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES

Just took a look at the forecast models (havn't done so in the past few days), and it looks like Sunday could feature some severe weather across this area. Its still to early to determine where the best instability will be located, or how strong it will be, but the potential exists for a decent event, somwhere in the outlined region...I will probably follow up a few more times before the event, if things still look reasonable...

Here is a general outlook I decided to whip up...Similar to SPC's forecast...Will see what happens...

[Broken External Image]:http://www.waveformpc.com/200404240403_outlook.gif

Robert
 
Who knows...I just got done reading the SPC 13Z outlook and the latest DTX discussion issued at 10:30am (Eastern time)...And they make it sound pretty promising. Dry slot is currently moving into southwest lower MI, so a few hours of sunshine is a very good bet...But along with the dry slot is the associated dry mid level air, which may cap off any thunderstorms. If southeast lower MI can manage to hit >70F, and dewpoints around 60F are able to advect in, AND thunderstorms develop, severe weather is a good bet...Those are alot of "ands", and if they all come together, then I would expect severe weather.

DTX will also be launching an 18Z sounding to get a better handle on things...

Robert
 
We're just now breaking 50 degrees with the dew point still below that slightly. The sun is trying to break through, but I don't think it's going to happen soon enough. The cold front may reach us first. I think you're right, downstate may see some activity, but I'm not sure it is certain enough to bring me down there yet. We'll see what the next two hours bring.

Tim
 
It looks like the timing of this system is a little earlier than expected, the precip is already on our doorstep here in Charleston WV. Doesn't look too impressive at the moment but eastern/southern WV is getting some decent sun right now, and with 80F already in Charleston the line may begin to intensify shortly - but I think most of the action will be east of here where the sun is really heating things up. The RUC is breaking out an intense area of precip in extreme SE WV and SW Virginia in the Roanoke-Bluefield-Lewisburg corridor - and the RUC has been pretty right-on with things lately around here. Surface windfields around the state are nice too. Strong gusty SW at the surface at around 15-20MPH. Looks like SPC's 1630Z outlook shifted the slight risk eastward based on all this.

Looks like the best action today could be in SE WV and SW-central VA where instability is maximum. Could be a narrow 'squeegee' line of storms back along the front, looks like this is already trying to happen in KY/OH.

I will probably be heading toward Beckley again this afternoon, targeting extreme southeast WV and just across the state line into VA. Should at least be a scenic chase into the higher terrain and the Blue Ridges.
 
OK, just saw the MCD for this area which outlines a greater threat to the NE. That was issued at 10:42AM though. Don't have much time to make a decision but now I'm considering the potential northeast on I-79. At least that would save money from tolls on the turnpike. Road network is pretty bad east of 79 though, and the precip sheild is about 1-2 hours from crossing the highway. Tough call. Might stick to the original target..... Such is chasing in the Appalachians.
 
Yeah, looks like nothing real exciting happend today. I did go out and chase some garden variety stuff here in SE lower MI, since I havn't chased in over a year (thats the last time we had anything real good).

Robert
 
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