Jenn Brindley
EF1
Severe storm warnings have been removed for the line moving through OK...
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Brandon Clement
EF4
The short term forecast for OKC goes in some detail about a second wave of storms later this evening. It also mentions that there will be less moisture and questions whether these storms will form along the stalled dryline.
The RUC shows these storms pushing East and more storms (sups) firing later.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/
I hope this is the case but am not very confident.
In the link above you can see the squall line was not nearly as intense and pushed East faster. Since the line in rather intense and moving slower than forecasted I question whether this will give the needed time for the atmosphere to become unstable again. I have seen it happen before but I would be surprised if it did today.
I am sitting just outside of Ponca City waiting for the line to push East then will move south. If nothing fires then at least I will be on my way home.
The RUC shows these storms pushing East and more storms (sups) firing later.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/
I hope this is the case but am not very confident.
In the link above you can see the squall line was not nearly as intense and pushed East faster. Since the line in rather intense and moving slower than forecasted I question whether this will give the needed time for the atmosphere to become unstable again. I have seen it happen before but I would be surprised if it did today.
I am sitting just outside of Ponca City waiting for the line to push East then will move south. If nothing fires then at least I will be on my way home.
Andrew Francis
EF3
where exactly is the dryline stalled out at?
This mess moving through central OK right now is really random. I am taking it as its not the result from the dryline.
ANyone believe (or planning on) storms will actually refire later tonight with isolated supercells?
This mess moving through central OK right now is really random. I am taking it as its not the result from the dryline.
ANyone believe (or planning on) storms will actually refire later tonight with isolated supercells?
Brian Hartmann
NWS Tulsa also makes mention of the elevated nature of the current linear system and distinguishes it from the surface-based stuff we hope will pop later on.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.p...rtlesville&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook
Brian
Jason Bolt
Starting to sense a total bust. The outlook from DDC mentioned the risk for the western part of the watch box being from 17z-20z. Here we had a stratus deck for the better part of the morning, and the last few hours 30-40 mph winds from the SW have been tearing apart anything that tries to develop. If the squally mess in C OK can get moved out soon there could be a chance for redevelopment this evening but the later in the day the precip hangs around the less likely that seems.
David Wolfson
EF5
Virtually in Smiths Center watching radar. Cells to my southwest in Woodston - Alton area seem to be staying more discrete. I wish it were three hours later, but all the ingredients are up here for things to get interesting very quickly.
Now back on the virtual road to Beloit, KS, arriving somewhere after 22Z.
Now back on the virtual road to Beloit, KS, arriving somewhere after 22Z.
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HAltschule
EF5
Yeah, I think you have to be really concerned about enough destabilization occurring this afternoon. The storms now are barely through OKC and it is already mid afternoon. It will take several hours of additional heating to get enough destabilization for a 2nd round of TRW's to occur this PM...and I don't think it will happen. I do believe there will be another round of severe convection overnight most likely to the EAST and SE of OKC...but this should be during the overnight hours, well after sunset. The 00z WRF shows this best. But as always...we shall see.
I would still favor those areas in S/C KS and N/C TX during the afternoon that I mentioned earlier in my outlook post.
I would still favor those areas in S/C KS and N/C TX during the afternoon that I mentioned earlier in my outlook post.
beaudodson
EF5
http://www.usawx.com/fortworthapril24sss.png
Strong hook southwest of Fort Worth - tornado warning now issued on it.
Strong hook southwest of Fort Worth - tornado warning now issued on it.
Jason Bolt
Could you expound a little on your thoughts for S/C KS as I just don't see it. Not being argumentative, just I'm a novice and curious what I am missing.
HAltschule
EF5
FYI...Tornado warning issued just to the Southwest of the Dallas/Ft. Worth area with a TVS now indicated. Movement of this storm will be directly over the immediate Metro Area over the next hour. DFW area may be in trouble!!!
matt patterson
EF2
Looking at the latest Mesonet OBS out of Central OK, Im seeing mid 60 tds with upper 60s AND lower 70s sfc temps... the Dryline is now well behind the line of convection that is racing off to the NE. Its only 2pm, so i think we have plenty of time to heat back up before the Jet streak gets here around 00z... its now a waiting game...
HAltschule
EF5
Earlier this morning my analysis of the info. showed that these areas I mentioned would receive the most heating and destabilization prior to the storms arrival. In addition, it looked like these areas had excellent severe weather indicies and parameters that would favor organized supercells and tornadoes...some possibly long lived. To see my earlier post, scroll up toward the begining of this thread.
Chad Ringley
EF2
Got a group I am basing from Florida St. moving SW on US 67 to intercept the cell S of Fort Worth. Sfc based rotation still organizing. Lot of cloud debris and drizzle is preventing them from a good view yet.
Mike Johnston
EF5
The nominal dry line looks to be about 2 county-lengths or so to the W of the back edge of the line of convection, although I'm not really sure if it matters. Flow at 850mb is veering pretty bad across the area, in fact veering behind the meridional flow at 500mb, so even with thin prospects for airmass recovery in the wake of the existing convection, I'm not sure directional shear will be very supportive of sups.
Further north into Kansas, there looks to be perhaps a bit wider of a window of opportunity w/ some insolation in developing clear air in vicinity of Pratt to Great Bend, where ample surface-based instability and still backed surface winds. Even here, the relatively unidrectional 850/500mb winds are far from optimal. Don't want to call the whole day a disappointment prematurely- and I'm not even following the stuff further south in Texas - but doubts seem to be weighing in at this hour.
JP Santiago
EF1
- Joined
- Jun 22, 2005
- Messages
- 73
Tornado warning just issued for the cell moving through Denton County.......
