4/24/07 FCST: KS/OK/TX/MO/NE/IA/IL

[afischer]

I'll be chasing KS today. Interestingly, some of Kevin's thoughts above closely mirror my own; I've been hemming and hawing all night over whether to mess with the warm front. Unfortunately, it's becoming clear that getting the extra low-level hodograph curvature will likely take me into the wastelands north of Russell/Lincoln... gross, I really hate trying to chase up there. I'm leaning toward the "less complicated" warm sector at this time, but won't know for sure until I check out the morning soundings & updated models. I'm off work in an hour and hope to depart within another hour after that.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Annoying how every single model is showing something different for today. Annoyingly also, most of the models don't develop convection far west, but instead very far east near the Arkansas area. Maybe that 850 dryline? Then there is the RUC which breaks out convection along the main dryline in Oklahoma, but has it erupting before noon. Gah. I'm hoping none of the models are right.

Either way, we're heading through Tulsa right now towards the central/north central part of Oklahoma.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

It almost looks like it wants to break out one line of storms early in the day, and then when the airmass recovers, develop the main show further back west. I don't know... if only they were all easy to figure out.

 

[Chad Ringley]

12z OUN RAOB has some nice hodograph curvature with 314 0-3k SREH. Already, 1585 MUCAPE. Cap is pretty strong, 5C at 806mb yielding -176 CINH. Makes me wonder how strong the cap will be farther south.

 

[afischer]

It almost looks like it wants to break out one line of storms early in the day, and then when the airmass recovers, develop the main show further back west. I don't know... if only they were all easy to figure out.

This seems to have been a consistent trend over the past couple runs of the NAM, though exactly how this pre-event stuff will evolve is about as clear as mud to me. It wouldn't surprise me if the moistening/brightening observed on water vapor over the TX/OK panhandles in the previous hour (accompanied by a lightning strike or two) eventually evolved into some storms over the next couple hours when it reaches the more weakly capped environment toward SE KS/NE OK. Regardless, in the wake of this band of ascent, the progged (and now observed) mid-level dry slot immediately in advance of the upper low center seems quite tenacious, so I'd expect at least a narrow zone of good heating in the wake of any early convection, to get the "main show" going by mid-afternoon. Hopefully not by early-afternoon; I won't make it in time.

 

[CraigFisher]

I am goiing to leave Beatrice, NE at around 10:00 am and make my way towards Salina, KS. After reading the Topeka NWS, Hastings NWS and SPC, I am going to stick with the nc Kansas area. Albeit not the best area today, but think there will be plenty to play around with.
Sure I'll see some of you out there.

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: KS/OK BORDER ON I-35. TIME OF DEPARTURE: 10 AM. WOW. Another classic tornado day. Being a traditional forecaster, I am favoring a target where the nose of the dry punch intersects the dryline at the surface. I do not like the veered surface winds forecasted for south of OKC later today, so I am giving up on south of OKC and Texas and favoring northern OK and southern KS. The broad jets aloft make pinpointing a target difficult, hence, the large area of MDT risk. The warm front in N KS is definitely a play, but too far for me. OKC and ICT are in trouble today. PROS - Dynamic system with lots of lift, ample moisture, great wind profiles, and a sharp dryline. CONS - Many storms in a broad target and they will be fast moving. I don't like race chasing. TM

 

[Eric Flescher]

Good information Tim and all
I am in Paola, KS (south of KC and Olathe) teaching today and watching the weather. Depending on what happens and what I see , I will head south or west around 3:00 or sit here in Paola if I need to. I will watch reports. Good luck and good chasing.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

In Kinsley KS now, thinking about going straight north towards Hays and chasing the low, n of the dl punch today. I hope the dl punch isn't too svr for this, but it may be. Then again it seems to relax later in the day. Early target just south of Hays and then progressing east fairly quickly. Weaker mid-level flow here should keep them from tearing north across the sharp warmfront...at least if one believes the nam over the ruc. The nam is also quite a bit slower with the dl punch, but the 12z ruc doesn't have the new data the 12z nam does I don't think...so maybe 15z ruc will change. Good luck to everyone.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Targeting Wellington today. I am started to see ioslated clearings around now in Wellington. I think the dryline will be a huge player today in possibly keeping storms a bit more discrete than up north. I agree N KS is looking good, but it may intiate to many storms causing them to fight themselves off and becoming a mess. I do expect tornadoes up there though early in the period. Anyway do south I think S KS/N OK are a great play today and I expect tornadic storms to rapidly develop by 2pm. Based on what has happened earlier this year the enitre dryline may light up with storms espeically north of OKC.

Good luck to everyone!!

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

The Tornadojunkies team is sitting in McPherson right now, we started to see some clearing just a little while ago. Dewpoint is 63 and temps are upper 60's.

We'll probably just hang out here until stuff starts to get heavy, we have excellent road options out of here....especially compared to West Texas.

Hopefully we'll see some of you out there on the road....if your in the are feel free to give me a text: 785-630-0363

Good luck!

Caleb

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Well. Im siiting in class right now, so obviously cant leave yet.. Due to time constraints, probably heading to Columbia, or a liitle south of that.. Good luck all. Cant wait till June when I can go long range.

 

[Paul Knightley]

2 areas of interest for me (for my virtual chase!):
1) SW of DFW - ECMWF breaks out plenty of precip along dry-line/Pacific cold front...however, with shear vectors more parallel to the boundary, there could be a problem with cells precipitating into each other, and causing a large mess to develop - cap should limit this somewhat though.
2) NW/N Cent OK/S-Cent KS - ahead of dry-line, with backed surface flow. Problem could be dry-line moves in too quickly, but I should imagine enough moisture will be in place ahead of it...could be a fairly early show here too.

I think on the face of it I would plump for the OK/KS option, perhaps starting in the Enid/Alva area. I think somewhat better chase country exists here, and I wouldn't run the risk of having to chase near the DFW Metroplex!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Fortunately, this is an easy forecast. *looks around*

... ...

I'm having a very difficult time discerning a good target today. The latest NAM seems to indicate a little less veered 850mb compared to the 12z RUC, but I think the strength of the flow is quite weak for a major tornado event (20-25kts mostly, immediately east of the dryline by 0z). In addition, I'm really not of fan of the NAM-forecast 850mb Q-vector divergence along the dryline in central OK/KS at 0z. The only substantial qvector convergence is limited to NW KS, far western OK, and the eastern TX panhandle. Looking at UVV plots from the 12z RUC, it appears as though meaningful upward motion slides eastward across central and eastern OK/KS through the afternoon, with negligible 700mb UVV near the dryline by 0z (though some UVV at 850mb, likely directly associated with the dryline).

On the other hand, forecast storm motions across the dryline area have slowed to 30-35kts per the 12z NAM, with 55-65kt deep-layer. Area VWPs indicate a back-with-height profile in the 700-500mb (Purcell) and 850-700mb (Lamont) layers, which I loathe. Morning soundings indicate substantial capping across the plains, with widespread overcast to broken skies across much of the area. Current radar data indicates (elevated) convection developing immediately east-through-northeast of Lawton. Oy.

Personally, I am liking two areas today. The first area is near the Red River area of southcentral OK and northcentral TX, where the models have been relativley persistent in showing slightly backed sfc flow as the dryline trails off to the SSW and SW. This is well on the warm side of the mid- and upper-level jet streaks, which doesn't get me too excited. The second area that I am considering is closer to the OK/KS border, where surface obs currently show nicely backed flow. Then again, if the flow right off the surface doesn't back to at least southerly, I don't think there will be significant-tornado-quality low-level shear within 100 miles of the dryline by late afternoon. Right now, I'm favoring the OK-KS border play. Of course, more options are present if I wanted to consider the northern KS target, but I'm not sure I'm up for that.

EDIT: To complicate further, convection now developing from Vernon TX to Hobart OK.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Uhh... not liking this at all! Looks like the dryline is SCREAMING east through Oklahoma now, as winds veer to a more southwesterly direction. TDs already in the 40s across most of western OK. It's only 10:30, so I'm now concerned that most of central OK is totally out of the tornado picture today. Convection is already trying to go, and as this stuff races off to the east, I'm afraid it's going to be an EARLY show with more of the eastern areas affected. At this point, I'm not too optimistic in thinking of driving to Ft. Smith today.