4/24/07 FCST: KS/OK/TX/MO/NE/IA/IL

[Donald Giuliano]

Well, right now I'm not too impressed with the situation for Oklahoma today. The 850mb low looks horrible; very round, with the best pressure gradient pushed way out ahead of the dryline as a trough axis moves through this morning to veer out and weaken the 850mb flow along I-35. That said, on the NAM at least the situation improves between 00z and 03z, so if that verifies perhaps central OK could have a chance around/after dark if we can keep storms going.

Other than that, I have some interest in the region where the better 850mb flow is, roughly from Ft. Smith, AR, to Paris, TX, except for the fact that the terrain is garbage. Central KS also has a chance this afternoon, but their wind profiles junk out toward 00z. Looking at the latest wind profiler ob from Purcell, as well as area VWPs, one can already see the 850mb winds veering out roughly as the NAM is forecasting.

Given the fact that this is a cut-off and therefore very difficult to forecast even the morning of, there's still a chance it could come together in a big way. However, it seems to me that if the models verify, today is going to be something of a dud, especially in Oklahoma (though some weak, short-lived tornadoes are still likely there). Of course, after I get off today I'll certainly be wandering around checking out whatever's in the region, as I'm not going to pass up a chase right in my backyard. It's not like I need a wedgefest to pique my interest when all I may need to do is look out the window.

 

[David Wolfson]

Packing up and checking out (virtually) in Hays. Still early, but the small cell now nnw of Hill City shows behavior as it tends to ride the surface front northeastward. The dry punch from the sw is pretty vigorous with 30s dews and 20 kt sw winds at SPD, EHA, and PYX. Aloft it seems to be advancing through GCK and DDC. Analysis little changed from last night, with decent CAPE and frontal convergence the play up north.

I'm watching the tail-end showers just to my west. I have a feeling I'll be virtually following this general area as it moves nne at about 20 kts and then rides the front ne from Stockton, more-or-less. But want to digest the 12Z data before making any big decisions.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Warm Front Takers

Target: Near or 50 miles ENE of Columbia, Missouri

I'm leaning towards playing the warm front into central and NE Missouri and keeping my fingers crossed on that one too. That's the best I can do since I can't leave Western IL before 3:30 p.m.

Mid-level frontogenesis looks to be favorable in this area, and a glance at mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km bulk shear values favor the development of severe weather near the warm front later this afternoon. A major tornado outbreak does not appear likely, but I wouldn't be suprised to see a few respectable tornado reports through tonight.

Warm front players: I don't expect anything to fire much before 2 or 3 p.m., but then again I could be wrong. Once things get cooking, the front will move into an area of large scale ascent, with good lift developing across northern MO partially due to an approaching upper level disturbance. CAPE values should easily exceeed 1500 J/KG if the area is able to destabilize sufficiently this afternoon.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Convection already underway over SW into central OK. 11am chasing is not what I would call "ideal," but whatever. I hope I'm dead wrong, dead wrong - but personally, I feel as if at least central OK is now "hosed!" OK Mesonet continues to show dryline advancing way too fast through OK, with surface winds now veering out of the SW and TDs dropping fast! This sucks!

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Tyler Costantini and I are sitting in the Wal-Mart parking lot off 160 in Wellington, KS. We are sitting under low level clouds with isolated breaks.

 

[Billy Griffin]

North Texas, the warm front in KS / NE, or head east, way east... Looks like a linear mess about to inundate much of central Oklahoma by noon. Maybe some isolated stuff can get cranking this afternoon in eastern OK. Oh well, looks like "chokelahoma" again today!

I don't know, maybe that cell along the dryline west of Lawton? It's not totally linear yet, but.....

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Talk about good timing I turned on my alert radio and caught the tor watch right as it was issued Leaving Wichita in about 30 min going to meet up with Mike Gribble in Pratt in about 2 hrs. With OKlahoma's misfortune of the dryline surging through the state im seeing things come together along the OK/KS border into sc/c KS and then points N and E... or im wishcasting.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Guys, this stuff forming in Oklahoma is not something that wasn't predicted by models. However, don't forget that the models predicted an early fire and then had the dryline stalling and re-firing, so don't write this one off yet.

 

[mark plate]

No way am I giving up on the I-35 corridor from the KS border to OKC. Current elevated convection developing was well depicted by several of the most reliable models yesterday. Eventually expect some of this to become surface based later this afternoon in SE OK/NE TX with a tornado threat there...not chasing those storms however.

Widely scattered tornadic supercells will develop south along the dryline near I-35 into Nrn. and possibly central OK between 21-23Z and move into northeast Oklahoma near/after sunset. Can't leave Tulsa until around 4 pm...that should still be plenty of time to get in good position...may end up right back here right after sunset...hopefully the likely large tornadoes miss the city...

 

[Billy Griffin]

so don't write this one off yet

Oh, I'm not. I'm just being my usual, grumpy self. For a day that has such high potential, I'm just fearing the dryline will scream on past us. IF we can get it to slow down or stall out around Hwy 81, that'd be just fine by me!
Can't really leave work until the 2pm timeline, so I'm hoping this blows out of here and yet the dryline remains back to the west. If that were to occur, hold on to your hats!

 

[Skip Talbot]

This is andrew pritchard, on skip's account. Yeah, if you'd check the models you'll see that yes, the dry line screams into Oklahoma in the morning. Yes, nasty precip breaks out early in the day, as it is now. But if you look later in the models, you'll see that the dry line stalls in the afternoon and tightens up with a nice little bulge in the north central part of the state. The earlier precip clears out allowing for better destablization, and things should have a chance to fire up then. Don't get all grumpy yet, its not even NOON.

 

[Billy Griffin]

OK - I'll try to keep my chin up! ;-)
Back on topic... is anyone having trouble with data services, such as WeatherTap, etc.? Maybe it's just my connection here in the office. I hope so, the last thing we need is a data outage today!

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Sitting in Blackwell, Ok, will wait to see if something materializes aside from any elevated convection. hoping the clouds clear out to get better visability.

 

[Shane Adams]

Chad Lawson and I are getting ready to head north on I-35....possibly west to around Medford or somewhere near with good north/south road options. Seems the best backed surface flow will develop/stay in that area, not to mention it's some of the world's best chase terrain. LOL, I've never seen anyone proclaim an area "hosed" minutes after a tornado watch was issued for it. These high-potential days seem to make some a little bonkers. As for me, I'm just hoping we get on initiation; yesterday we opted to stay on target as opposed to racing away to the obvious player......I think today if the same situation occurs, we might not repeat that move

 

[John Diel]

Sitting @ I-35 & US 60. Winds out of the south (where aren't they?) with temp 75 & DP around 65. Light sprinkles not even showing on BR1. Will hang here until we see the real nature of the beast.