4/24/07 FCST: KS/OK/TX/MO/NE/IA/IL

[Jason A.C. Brock]

With the models mostly putting things too far east this year I wouldnt be surprised to see the Moderate risk pulled back to be centered over Central Oklahoma tomorrow. I hate to see it actually form supercells in the trees of Eastern Oklahoma and perhaps Arkansas. WE may have a nice boundary outflow somewhere say maybe central Oklahoma?
I guess we will know in the AM

 

[Brian Stertz]

This particular day has multiple very strong targets for something very bad to go on. Certainly target# 1 is in the Russell-Salina area in vicinity of the deep surface low, and major tornado parameters bullseyed in this area. I am also seeing a later but pretty scary show across C/E Oklahoma by early evening as the dryline explodes and multiple tornadic supercells affect areas east of I-35...these would be my 2 main choices at this point for strong to violent tornadoes. I will certainly be playing the deep surface low in C.Kansas and it's significant threat of damaging tornadoes. Do feel the High Risk mentions would be well supported, especially by afternoon into Tue. night. Just at this point wondering how much sfc low occlusion will take place during the day as this serious system evolves.

 

[David Toner]

SPC just posted the 1730 update for tommorow. They extended the moderate risk area further east than earlier. I think I'll be headed to the Wichita area to start with. Wouldn't mind going after the surface low but I'm more familiar with the southern KS and northern OK area. Besides I seem to always have more luck with the dryline. Good luck everyone.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

The OUN AFD hits at something we all have been expecting and hoping for...the dryline slowing its eastward progress tomorrow afternoon and thus moving the line of initiation a bit further west. I myself plan on kind of just sitting on things here in Norman until I can get a very good idea late tomorrow morning of a more centralized location to target. As of right now I am really liking the Clinton-Cyril corridor for initiation.

 

[afischer]

I'm very happy to see the models slow the eastward progress down as well. I don't want anything to do with the Flint Hills of Kansas.

Anyone wanting to make an argument for a 30-day cycle... this would be the year to do it. 2-23, 2-24... 3-23, 3-24... 4-23, 4-24... Crazy!!!

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Currently at the holiday inn in OKC. Figured I would come this far west as most of the models and other indications slow the system down and hence move the target area further west. I was going to stay in tulsa, but figured I would hang out here to see what shakes out early tommarow morning. Thinking I may go north from here if I go anywhere as the proximity to the triple point may enhance anthing that may get going.. we shall see...

 

[Eric Flescher]

I will camp out in Paola, KS during my teaching that day. I will watch the developments. Depending on how things go , I will shoot further west or south of Paola for the high risk area in Salina to Wichita. Should be interesting when things will start to fire on Tuesday.
Good luck out there.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I will camp out in Paola, KS during my teaching that day. I will watch the developments. Depending on how things go , I will shoot further west or south of Paola for the high risk area in Salina to Wichita. Should be interesting when things will start to fire on Tuesday.
Good luck out there.

I'm leaving Omaha approx 1230, blasting south on US-75 to get Steak 'n Shake in Topeka (!), then reconnoiter. I can't make Wichita but Emporia and Salina are doable.

 

[David Wolfson]

Looks like cold-core meets warm front in north central KS. Rationally positive storm motion across the boundary with decent CAPE and helicity. Could be a very active day. After virtually observing the Sitka/Protection storm I reserved my virtual room in Hays and pulled in a little while ago. Will sleep in till the 12Z data ripens.

 

[Bill Hark]

I am amazed at the parameters coming together for Tuesday. Surface low sitting over SW Kansas/SE Colorado with backed winds across most of Kansas. Forty to 50 KT winds from the SW at the 500 mb level. Strong low level jet. Dewpoints forecast to be 60 to 65 ahead of the dryline with 1500 to 2000 CAPE. Predicted shear is slightly lower than I had hoped but still sufficient at 150 to 200 according to the NAM. Although the dryline will likely light up, the surface winds will not be as backed. I'd like to stay a bit closer to the surface low. My overnight target is Pratt. My main concern that the best upper level dynamics maybe shifting too far to the southwest by evening according to both the GFS and NAM 00Z init. Also, too many storms may fire at once has the cap will become nonexistant per 700 mb temps later in the day.

Overnight TARGET (if I was chasing): Pratt, KS

Bill Hark

 

[Paul Stofer]

I'm surprised no one has really mentioned this area as a possible target. I'm interested in a possible target area between Thackerville, OK and Wichita Falls, Texas on the Red River. Based on the WRF model, the winds look awesome and shift great between the 850's and 500 mb with that narrow streak of 90 knots shooting right through Wichita Falls at 0Z. The WRF simulated reflectivity shows a nice supercell going up right over this target and moving to the northeast. Dewpoints will be near the 70's with temperatures in the 80s. Just a 10 degree dewpoint spread. Surface cape is near 3000 j/kg. With the dryline bulge pushing through between 22-01z I think the red river region could be a hot spot for a possible large tornado or two. Myself, Jeremy Wilson, Jason Brock and his chase partner will be starting off in Thackerville and repositioning tomorrow after the RUC gets a good handle on it. Good luck everyone!

 

[Joey Ketcham]

WIth dewpoints in the mid 60's and temps in the mid 70's to about 80, things are really shaping up nicely. Tyler Costantini and I are heading to Wichita here shortly and plan on sitting tight there for a while.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Chris Sokol]

I'm going to head out toward El-Reno. This gives me Hwy 81 to play with for position. Latest info shows the dryline will not advance across Oklahoma as rapidly as previously expected, with storms in the OKC area at 5-6 PM. Looks like the show will be close to home today for me...not necessarily a good thing.

Interested to see what the 1300Z Day 1 gives, as the initial one was basically a cut and paste of yesterdays Day 2 (and it was almost 20 minutes late at that).

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The 09Z RUC and 06Z WRF suggest the winds just above the surface will veer out a bit along the I-35 corridor from southern KS into northern TX by 21Z, setting up an "elevated dryline" scenario just east of the I-35 corridor. I wonder whether this is realistic given the strong capping inversion that should exist but does not seem well resolved by these models. I suspect the RUC may be overdoing it taking the 850 mb dryline as far east as Tulsa, with its tendency to handle boundary layer processes poorly. But the signal of veering out and weakening flow around 850 mb suggests some sort of elevated dryline out in advance of the surface dryline. I'll be watching this carefully today.

The progged low-level hodographs don't look outrageous today in general (though certainly more than adequate). I'll also be watching for locally-backed surface winds and the profilers/VWPs to suggest locations where the low-level hodograph may be improved. I think that a BIG question for many OKC/Norman/DFW chasers today will be whether to take a risk up to north central Kansas for what may be a higher threat there. I really liked the back low-level winds progged up there to improve the low-level hodograph shape.

Some showers developing at 545 am out near Altus...will be interesting to see what happens with those. Good luck everyone!

 

[Todd Segraves]

Having to work until 3:30, my options are somewhat limited. That said, I will most likely target an area between Lawrence and Emporia. Depending on timing, moving west of this area may be necessary, but if initiation begins as early as expected, there could potentially be a line of supercells along the I-35 corridor. Good luck today to everyone.