4/23/08 FCST: TX/OK/KS/CO/NE

[Tony Laubach]

Sitting in Campo, CO right now and am seriously giving consideration to returning northward to northeast Colorado where dews are already in the upper 40s. With the crap ongoing in Texas right now, I think the cleaner air, while not as unstable, is definitely further north. Based on my analysis here on the side of US 287, I am in agreement that the 10% may be a very late show if at all. Excellent moisture resides down there, but is it too much? Seems to be a common theme with setups down there so far this year as storms went HP fairly quick and made for interesting chase scenarios.

The tri-state play, while not as promising, I think holds better photographic potential and low-end tornado potential. And since I've already driven to the OK/CO border, I can safely say it is not a distance factor with me. I just have a feeling that between the recovery time needed for the southern target plus the relatively close T/TD spreads, that it may be a mesy chase. Even with the lower tornado potential in Colorado, I think better storms will be up there...

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I'm turning around... Im just not sold on TX right now...

 

[Gabe Garfield]

At the moment, it looks like the lead wave associated with the elevated convection NW of Abilene is quickly moving off to the east. Accordingly, subsidence should begin to diminish the intensity of these storms, at least to some extent. This seems to be the case, as there appears to be a slight down-trend with this convection.

Visible satellite imagery shows quite a few breaks in the cirrus deck, and more should develop in the wake of the lead wave. Water vapor imagery shows the axis of the primary wave in C NM at this time. Given the progressive pattern, this should impact the warm sector in 3-5 hours. Hopefully, enough clearing can commence in wake of the lead wave to generate strong instability before the next wave arrives.

 

[BrandonWhittington]

Sitting here at work looking at everything, walking outside every 10 min. Cloud deck seems to be dissapating pretty rapidly here in Borger, TX. Central TX panhandle is where im going to stay today, With the clouds dissapating here, we should have about 4 hours of warming and mixing. Im targeting a triangle from Borger, To Canyon to Shamrock. Also, the Low level winds are finnally starting to pick up as well. It will still be interesting to see how this pans out.

 

[David Douglas]

I'm sure not reading the afternoon moderate very well. From the 0z RUC, the 500mb max is in central Texas. The 850 looks like it's over north central Texas. There is good CAPE down towards Del Rio and some in west central OK. Anyone care to clear this afternoon setup for me as I'm not seeing it very well this time.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Well it looks like the Moderate is more for large hail, and I think that with the amount of storms that are going to be moving across the risk area there could be a ton of large hail reports across that area today.

One thing I'm watching is the Outflow boundary that is just E of OKC, although better shear will not be here until later this afternoon/evening. But I'm not that worried about the extra shear because I can remember multiple times I have had tons of success with a rogue storm riding a boundary, so if there's any hope for me today it will probably be from that.

Either way, with tons of assignments due in the week before dead week crunch, I can't justify trying to weed through the mess this afternoon for sure. If I had a full day of chasing available today, I would certainly be heading towards the I-20 corridor in the Abilene area.

EDIT: Another not bad play for myself at least is down near home in southern Oklahoma this evening and overnight as shear increases. Not sure if things will pan out there, but I am considering that as a possibility.

 

[Chad Cowan]

I would have to say the best tornado potential for today has shifted south to the area from Midland/Odessa over to Abeline and points south towards the Mexico border. The subtropical jet max will enter this region over the next 3-4 hrs and bring more favorable shear profiles with it.

 

[David Douglas]

It does look like the 500mb jet nose is coming into west central texas providing support along the boundaries. Specifically, the Snyder storm and the ones to the west of Snyder.