Stan Rose
EF5
Looks like a classic early May setup for the Central Plains Wednesday, with the potential for a regional severe weather outbreak.
Positive-tilted trough will be moving into the four corners region Wed morning, with a strong mid-level jet of 65-70 kts out ahead and surface development over E CO- W KS. Ongoing convection from Tuesday night will complicate the mesoscale environment, but expect recovery by midday over much of the area, and with dewpoints in the upper 60s-near 70 degrees and plenty of deep shear, the ingredients will be in place for another round of wide-scale severe by mid to late afternoon.
Greatest potential for tornadic development will likely be along the warm front in N KS, possibly S NE, with a second area of likely more isolated development along the dryline southward through OK and into N TX. SPC has this area out-looked for day 5 with a 30% risk. They even mention the possibility of a few strong tornadoes, pretty rare language for a day 5 event, but seems warranted given the expected large hodographs, particularly near the triple point and convergent zone near the dryline.
The fact that this is a day 2 event that follows closely on the heels of a decent potential day 1 in the same area makes for an attractive chase opportunity. I'm hoping the severe pain of passing three kidney stones resolves soon enough so that I'm able to be out for the event!
Positive-tilted trough will be moving into the four corners region Wed morning, with a strong mid-level jet of 65-70 kts out ahead and surface development over E CO- W KS. Ongoing convection from Tuesday night will complicate the mesoscale environment, but expect recovery by midday over much of the area, and with dewpoints in the upper 60s-near 70 degrees and plenty of deep shear, the ingredients will be in place for another round of wide-scale severe by mid to late afternoon.
Greatest potential for tornadic development will likely be along the warm front in N KS, possibly S NE, with a second area of likely more isolated development along the dryline southward through OK and into N TX. SPC has this area out-looked for day 5 with a 30% risk. They even mention the possibility of a few strong tornadoes, pretty rare language for a day 5 event, but seems warranted given the expected large hodographs, particularly near the triple point and convergent zone near the dryline.
The fact that this is a day 2 event that follows closely on the heels of a decent potential day 1 in the same area makes for an attractive chase opportunity. I'm hoping the severe pain of passing three kidney stones resolves soon enough so that I'm able to be out for the event!