2018-05-02 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE/IA/MO

Has GR Level 3 data been very slow all afternoon/currently down completely for anyone else, or just me?
I've had the same issue. Suspect it is the noaa feed, as radar scope has worked just fine. Maybe time to get an allison house feed.
 
Surface winds were backed enough, but not strong enough. VBV below 700 mb might have been an issue too. I really think the main issue was lack of stout inflow to the mesocyclones.

I am disappointed my US-160/US-54 boundary failed, but it was always subject to slop risk anyway. Frankly I'm shocked the Oklahoma OFB DL-bulge intersection failed. Glad it was a virtual chase.

SPC showed great restraint no 15% TOR. Also no PDS boxes. PDS requires 80% sig. tor. which they rightfully did not forecast. While the synoptic set-up was textbook, meso-scale details matter.
 
I think if you were looking critically at this setup you could see possible failure modes (although I wouldn't call the event a failure exactly, as there were tornadoes and mesocyclones). Some VB above the PBL along with some capping to the east and early initiation + storm competition made this a less-than-incredible setup.

It takes a lot more than a "textbook" shaped trough with some moisture to get a big tornado outbreak, although such troughs and moisture are usually a fair guarantee of at least widespread severe (wind + hail).
 
Back
Top