Billy Griffin
Yes, I know, still days & days out, and this will change, but talk about a well-defined and sharp dryline bulge!GFS models 144hr TDs is looking good!
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Yes, I know, still days & days out, and this will change, but talk about a well-defined and sharp dryline bulge!GFS models 144hr TDs is looking good!
Brian Stertz
EF5
E.Texas Panhandle..W.Oklahoma...and SW Kansas look very primed for Saturday's event. On 00z GFS...excellent upper divergence...neg tilted 500mb trough at 00z Sat over the dryline and double pt.....deep shear of 45-55 kts ...decent instability (2000 j/kg + CAPES) and well backed winds ahead of the dryline spells bigtime trouble late Saturday afternoon until well into the nighttime as the action spreas into C/S Kansas and C. Oklahoma. Strong moderate risk type setup if the forecast trends continue for SC Kansas...W/C Oklahoma... E.Texas Panhandle/NE Caprock...and possibly extreme NW/NC Texas.
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Ray Walker
Brian I agree. The gulf is already getting juiced up and once the system today moves through a strong moisture return should comince late wednesday into thursday and last well into next week possibly setting the stage for another strong event early next week. However this system screams Western Oklahoma for tornadoes saturday.
matt patterson
EF2
Here we go again.... Ok is still looking for her first big event! Saturday per the GFS looks gangbusters with just the right amount of shear and moisture present. This is more of the classic type setup that we are used to in OK. Also to note, Friday doesn't look half bad if you target the western high plains, but that belongs in a different thread which has not been created. Anyway, I cant wait to see the 12z...... Cross your fingers Oklahoma, this may be the ONE....
Karen Politte
EF5
Does everybody think the atmosphere can do it as far as some spectacular moisture return?
Tds in the mid-Gulf were in the lower 50s yesterday although this morning they are in the lower 60s. I am always the pessimist - but we are going to have to see some great recovery for Saturday to really be the world-ending event that a lot of folk think it's going to be.
KL
Tds in the mid-Gulf were in the lower 50s yesterday although this morning they are in the lower 60s. I am always the pessimist - but we are going to have to see some great recovery for Saturday to really be the world-ending event that a lot of folk think it's going to be.
KL
Jim Leonard
Right now Im not too optomistic about moisture return for Saturday. The uppper system looks great but the GOM is too hosed for now. The trajectory of the return flow is from the NE over Florida then east over most of the Gulf by this weekend. IMHO early next week should be prime for severe storms as the next upper low drops in toward the four corners, by that time there should be good moisture return. As it looks now Moday or Tuesday could be really interesting.
Donald Giuliano
EF3
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2005
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With 500mb temperatures forecast to be in the -15C range, we don't need spectacular moisture return for an outbreak to occur. If these mid-upper-level temps verify, the low-60 dewpoints forecast by the GFS will work just fine, especially over the higher terrain, and seem easily doable to me.
As of the 06Z GFS, things are still looking on track for an interesting Saturday, and the run-to-run and inter-model consistency displayed so far has been nothing short of remarkable. The ensemble mean is also pegged right on the same solution, which I guess should be unsurprising given the previous sentence. I usually don't have much confidence more than a couple days in advance at the most, but to me this just looks like a clear synoptic signal for an outbreak setup that's very likely to verify. There are always things that can go wrong, but right now I'm already of the opinion that there is a greater than 50% chance of having a significant outbreak this Saturday.
As of the 06Z GFS, things are still looking on track for an interesting Saturday, and the run-to-run and inter-model consistency displayed so far has been nothing short of remarkable. The ensemble mean is also pegged right on the same solution, which I guess should be unsurprising given the previous sentence. I usually don't have much confidence more than a couple days in advance at the most, but to me this just looks like a clear synoptic signal for an outbreak setup that's very likely to verify. There are always things that can go wrong, but right now I'm already of the opinion that there is a greater than 50% chance of having a significant outbreak this Saturday.
SteveCarter
EF2
We started a thread in "weather and chasing" about the entire period from 4/20 - 4/26. Seems like there will be a LOT going on over this period. Two possible set-ups. Even THIS first set-up mentioned here is still to far out to even TRY to pin-point. One thing tho...IMHO..think moisture will NOT be a problem, but like I said, kinda far out yet.
Brandon Sullivan
EF5
Im gonna go with steve.. Dont think moisture is a problem.
Glen Romine
EF5
I'm with Jim on the potential for this weekend - looks like a good primer event to help set things up for what has the potential to be a better event sometime, somewhere next week. While the GFS miraculously develops a thin tendril of ok moisture return by 00Z Sunday, the precip is rather spartan given the strength of the shortwave emerging. Making the reasonable assumption said shortwave is poorly handled by the model in terms of strength, timing and placement this far out (and generously assuming it materializes at all), certainly with favorable timing storms will be possible Saturday on the western central plains, but unless a target materializes in deep west Texas or the high plains - weak moisture will probably be the killer for significant tornado prospects. Freak things can happen, so maybe things find a way to come together for Saturday, but I'd be very, very surprised if a tornado outbreak were to materialize that day.
Ray Walker
Given the strength of this system and a few days of moisture return I really dont think moisture will be a big problem with this event. The gulf is already begining to moisten back up and by thursday I think 60's dewpoints will be at least into the northern gulf and possibly into parts of south texas. Ya, we wont have the 70's dewpoints that we would LOVE to see with these big systems however we do not need them. Low 60's will work just fine. However I do agree with Jim that early next week moisture will defanatly NOT be a problem as dewpoints should easily be in the mid to upper 60's.
Donald Giuliano
EF3
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2005
- Messages
- 226
I agree that we won't be seeing really rich Gulf moisture by Saturday, but in my opinion we don't need it, and mediocre Gulf moisture will be sufficient.
One thing to remember about any potential setup this year is that there has been a tremendous amount of rain over the Southern Plains of late. Once the sun comes out later this week, there's going to be strong latent heat and moisture flux in the boundary layer due to evapotranspiration. Now generating large area of 70+ dewpoints in just a few days from that moisture source alone is unrealistic, but generating a large area of 60+ dewpoints is quite feasible. Given that 500mb temperatures are forecast to be around -15C, ~60F dewpoints yield more than sufficient instability in western NE/KS/OK/TX given the altitude (3000 CAPE near DDC by Friday evening if you believe the 12Z NAM). Anything beyond that is gravy.
One thing to remember about any potential setup this year is that there has been a tremendous amount of rain over the Southern Plains of late. Once the sun comes out later this week, there's going to be strong latent heat and moisture flux in the boundary layer due to evapotranspiration. Now generating large area of 70+ dewpoints in just a few days from that moisture source alone is unrealistic, but generating a large area of 60+ dewpoints is quite feasible. Given that 500mb temperatures are forecast to be around -15C, ~60F dewpoints yield more than sufficient instability in western NE/KS/OK/TX given the altitude (3000 CAPE near DDC by Friday evening if you believe the 12Z NAM). Anything beyond that is gravy.
Matthew Crowther
EF4
I am going into the pessimistic camp with this one. Despite strong cyclogenesis over the Plains and good southerly flow, there will be a persistent ridge of high pressure extending well down into the central and eastern Gulf and northern Caribbean sea because of the omega blocking pattern that will be in its last throes. Therefore the general trajectory of the flow will be from the ENE across the Gulf- so that it seems to me that dewpoints in the upper 50s to MAYBE low 60s will be all that we will be able to manage on Saturday, the best looking day synoptically for the High Plains this weekend. So right now I am thinking that severe storms are almost a given on that day and supercells are likely as well, but a lot of tornadoes..probably not. Worth chasing if you are in the area, but I am not anticipating an outbreak. Sunday the low pressure is likely to be pretty far north in the Upper Midwest- perhaps some moderate potential up in that region. I hope I am wrong since I could come out for a spot chase, but right now it does not look like it will be worth the time and expense for me.
The real action to me looks to be for the middle portion of next week- the Gulf by that time should be providing a much richer flow of juice, and another trough will be slowly moving in from the west. This trough is likely to be slower than the OP GFS is showing- the ECMWF, SEF and ensemble mean are all suggesting a more closed off slower solution- which would suggest that the best days may be next Tuesday and Wednesday.
How good? Way too early to tell of course, but that is my best guess at this juncture. One factor in its favor- I cannot chase those days
The real action to me looks to be for the middle portion of next week- the Gulf by that time should be providing a much richer flow of juice, and another trough will be slowly moving in from the west. This trough is likely to be slower than the OP GFS is showing- the ECMWF, SEF and ensemble mean are all suggesting a more closed off slower solution- which would suggest that the best days may be next Tuesday and Wednesday.
How good? Way too early to tell of course, but that is my best guess at this juncture. One factor in its favor- I cannot chase those days
Jay McCoy
EF5
Dewpoints back on 3-28 werent even as high as they are expected to be this saturday and you guys still question the lack of moisture?? This isnt nebraska or Missouri. You dont have to have 70's to get tornados. low 60s will be just fine for tornados. You get too high you start looking at HP's anyway. I prefer a nice 65 DP along the dryline. With DP's in the teen west of the dryline it will be quite sharp. There is ample ground moisture to help keep mixing to a minimum and LCL's should be low enough for some nice tornadics cells in west Oklahoma. We have had a number of tornado days in the panhandle this year with less than 60 DP's. I dont think I have seen above 65 yet and have 10 tornados so far..hmmmm
If you dont feel there will be enough moisture then dont chase and we will send ya some pics afterward. Will help hold down traffic congestion anyway. With it being saturday it will be a zoo as is. Pessimism only hurts the pessimist.
Now in Late May its a different stroy and low 70s are quite nice.. But its mid-April!! Temps wont be much above 80 at most so the DP depression wont be extreme. You have to consider time of year and location and not just focus on the DP itself.
If you dont feel there will be enough moisture then dont chase and we will send ya some pics afterward. Will help hold down traffic congestion anyway. With it being saturday it will be a zoo as is. Pessimism only hurts the pessimist.
Now in Late May its a different stroy and low 70s are quite nice.. But its mid-April!! Temps wont be much above 80 at most so the DP depression wont be extreme. You have to consider time of year and location and not just focus on the DP itself.
Brian Stertz
EF5
agreed Jay
Excellent point Jay...first off we are not yet in the "wet" season where Td's are often in the mid 60's to mid 70's...and in the High Plains a mid 50 Td is often sufficient to bring some big game to chasers. The Texas Panhandle is very notorious for this. Saturday the main wave makes a direct strike on the High Plains strongly convergent dryline from the DDC area down towards the AMA area. I am in the camp that things may be just the right balance of moderate instability and decently strong shear...plus there may be the added focus of a dryline/warm front intersection in this zone as well. The March 28th case was a bit more extreme speed shear wise, but still this system forecast shows a good balance of 30-50 kt. 850 jet and 40-55 kt. 500 jet...and a criss cross somewhere in the SW Kansas to C. Texas Panhandle area. While maybe this is not an outbreak scenario...scattered supercells may make things fun chase-wise. I am liking Monday too for a nice chase setting across S.Kansas and N.Oklahoma
Excellent point Jay...first off we are not yet in the "wet" season where Td's are often in the mid 60's to mid 70's...and in the High Plains a mid 50 Td is often sufficient to bring some big game to chasers. The Texas Panhandle is very notorious for this. Saturday the main wave makes a direct strike on the High Plains strongly convergent dryline from the DDC area down towards the AMA area. I am in the camp that things may be just the right balance of moderate instability and decently strong shear...plus there may be the added focus of a dryline/warm front intersection in this zone as well. The March 28th case was a bit more extreme speed shear wise, but still this system forecast shows a good balance of 30-50 kt. 850 jet and 40-55 kt. 500 jet...and a criss cross somewhere in the SW Kansas to C. Texas Panhandle area. While maybe this is not an outbreak scenario...scattered supercells may make things fun chase-wise. I am liking Monday too for a nice chase setting across S.Kansas and N.Oklahoma
