4/21/04 FCST: OK/northeast TX/western AR

[Gabe Garfield]

As much as I hate to admit it, I agree with Simon's reasoning...central Oklahoma could get tagged today. Reminds me a lot of May 8th last year. Of course, there are different atmospheric parameters, but the threat is increasing as the day progesses and the SPC is moving the risk further into central Oklahoma. The Norman dome has a good chance of breaking today, and I'll be in an Atms. Dynamics exam! LOL.

Gabe

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Ok, so after going over the most recent RUC data, Jason and I will be heading toward Pauls Valley here in just a sec to set up shop there. We will wait there for initiation and then decide which way we want to go. Hopefully, stuff should go up around 3pm to the west of there. Pauls Valley has several good ways out of town so we should not have any problems getting out of there. Everything is lookin good!

 

[Shane Adams]

Re: Norman Will Get Hit

Originally posted by Simon Brewer
Norman is going to get hit today!!!!!

Warm front has stalled on I-40, the models are underestimating the CAPE which will most likely reach 3000 J/kg today in Central Oklahoma!

Norman and Moore are in line for any tornadic supercell that goes up.

TODAY WILL BE HUGE!!!!!

Try not to sound so excited....a bunch of us live here/there

 

[Trey Atterbury]

Anybody coming through Gainesville wanna pick me up? Parents wont let me go out alone Let me know
Thanks Trey

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I think this is turning into a very dangerous sitution. Latest RUC run keeps east-southeast or at least southeast winds east of I35 by 0z. Because of this, the RUC is showing helicity >400-500 (!!) by late afternoon east of I-35. This is nicely juxtaposed with CAPEs in the upper 2000 range (2000-3000 depending upon location), which leads to an incredibly favorable instability-shear profile. Deep-layer shear off the 12z ETA run shows 0-6k deep-layer shear ~50-55kts over southern 1/2 of OK this pm too.

Picking a target location is proving to be very difficult! I am inclined to go for any sups that may ride along the warm front / OFB near I40, but the best shear per latest RUC remains south of I40 and east of I35. So, depending upon what happens from 3-4:45p, I will likely aim just south and east of here (Norman). Good luck to all! Let's hope these beasts stay out of populater areas!

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Personally, I'm not too high on the setup today. I don't think the shear supports significant tornadic activity in Oklahoma, and think that anything substantial (i.e., stronger, more long-lived tornadoes...not brief spinups) that may occur will hold off until the low-level jet kicks into gear around sunset, east of I-35 and along/south of the windshift. The prospect of that may be enough to make me head out, but based on the RUC, the 18Z OUN sounding, and current profiler obs I'm not really excited about the setup and expect most, if not all, of the tornadic activity to be sporadic and weak in nature. At least I live right here, so if something starts to happen it's easy to hop into my car and roll out. Of course, one always has to be careful when using model progs, so I'll be keeping a close eye on the situation as it develops this afternoon. If nothing else, it appears we should have some good supercells today.