4/20/04 NOW: IL/IN

[rdale]

"SPC really blew this forecast."

Blew it? WRONG. It saddens me to see people on a met forum saying something like this. There was _NOTHING_ in the data earlier to suggest this. You can't blow a forecast when it's unforecastable. Statements like this make me wonder about some people...

"I wonder what they are thinking now in Norman..."

Wow. I know what I'm thinking about your slam...

Was the warning issued before damage? I would bet so. Do you think the people killed said "SPC did not issue a moderate risk earlier, so we'll ignore it"? That's just ridiculous to blame this on SPC. I'm still shocked that someone would take an event like this and twist it as you've done.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by David Draun
That was probably an HP that prompted the flood warning for CHI. Now there are 4 :!: confirmed tornado-related deaths in LaSalle County! :shock: Boy! SPC really blew this forecast. I wonder what they are thinking now in Norman...

Why is everyone so quick to blame SPC? Why not blame NWS offices? Why not blame media outlets (TWC, etc)? I have yet to find any evidence that anyone legitimate was forecasting this event... These were minisupercells, in a high-shear, low instability environment. Hmm... seems similar March 4th, 2004 in OK and northern TX. Remember that one, high risk, PDS, etc... Similar thing -- high shear, low instability. Yes, there's plenty still to discover and research about severe thunderstorms, but remember, SPC forecasters are human, just like everyone else. They are not going to be on top of EVERY event. There will be some days that look awesome but fail to produce; there will be some days that look like garbage but somehow produce bigtime. Yes, I know this was a significant outbreak, but I continue to say that I have yet to see a single legit source that had forecasted this event.

EDIT: I made this post the same time as Rob's post above... I agree whole-heartedly with everything he said. I've already heard this numerous times tonight off StormTrack as well as other lists. Grrrr.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-David Draun

That was probably an HP that prompted the flood warning for CHI. Now there are 4 :!: confirmed tornado-related deaths in LaSalle County! :shock: Boy! SPC really blew this forecast. I wonder what they are thinking now in Norman...

Why is everyone so quick to blame SPC? Why not blame NWS offices? Why not blame media outlets (TWC, etc)? I have yet to find any evidence that anyone legitimate was forecasting this event... These were minisupercells, in a high-shear, low instability environment. Hmm... seems similar March 4th, 2004 in OK and northern TX. Remember that one, high risk, PDS, etc... Similar thing -- high shear, low instability. Yes, there's plenty still to discover and research about severe thunderstorms, but remember, SPC forecasters are human, just like everyone else. They are going to be on top of EVERY event. Yes, I know this was a significant outbreak, but I continue to say that I have yet to see a single legit source that had forecasted this event.[/b]

Very much agree with Jeff...

Why blame anyone...SPC TRIES their best to forecast. I highly doubt that they were just sitting around doing nothing...The fact is, if they knew about what was going to happen, the WOULD have done something! Forecasting IS predicting the future, you can't really tell what happens until it happens...

Robert

 

[David Draun]

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder@
<!--QuoteBegin-David Draun

That was probably an HP that prompted the flood warning for CHI. Now there are 4 :!: confirmed tornado-related deaths in LaSalle County! :shock: Boy! SPC really blew this forecast. I wonder what they are thinking now in Norman...

Why is everyone so quick to blame SPC? Why not blame NWS offices? Why not blame media outlets (TWC, etc)? I have yet to find any evidence that anyone legitimate was forecasting this event... These were minisupercells, in a high-shear, low instability environment. Hmm... seems similar March 4th, 2004 in OK and northern TX. Remember that one, high risk, PDS, etc... Similar thing -- high shear, low instability. Yes, there's plenty still to discover and research about severe thunderstorms, but remember, SPC forecasters are human, just like everyone else. They are going to be on top of EVERY event. Yes, I know this was a significant outbreak, but I continue to say that I have yet to see a single legit source that had forecasted this event.

Very much agree with Jeff...

Why blame anyone...SPC TRIES their best to forecast. I highly doubt that they were just sitting around doing nothing...The fact is, if they knew about what was going to happen, the WOULD have done something! Forecasting IS predicting the future, you can't really tell what happens until it happens...

Robert[/b]

I retract my "blew it " statement I still have a lot to learn.

 

[Melissa Moon]

Originally posted by rdale
\"SPC really blew this forecast.\"

Blew it? WRONG. It saddens me to see people on a met forum saying something like this. There was _NOTHING_ in the data earlier to suggest this. You can't blow a forecast when it's unforecastable. Statements like this make me wonder about some people...

\"I wonder what they are thinking now in Norman...\"

Wow. I know what I'm thinking about your slam...

Was the warning issued before damage? I would bet so. Do you think the people killed said \"SPC did not issue a moderate risk earlier, so we'll ignore it\"? That's just ridiculous to blame this on SPC. I'm still shocked that someone would take an event like this and twist it as you've done.

Well, you're right in the sense that this was pretty much impossible to forecast and it all took us by surprise. However, the SPC DID blow it. And I think the rest of us did too 8) so we're all even.

 

[Bill Hark]

I was stuck at work and away from the computer. Did anybody save some late morning/ early afternoon data from today? I'd llike to go back and look at some of the surface obs/model forecasts and parameters.

Bill Hark

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Bill Hark
I was stuck at work and away from the computer. Did anybody save some late morning/ early afternoon data from today? I'd llike to go back and look at some of the surface obs/model forecasts and parameters.

Bill Hark

Didn't think to save any data, since I was not expeting this event...Here is a level II nexrad image from when the supercells first started getting their act together in Central IL...

(~2219z):
Cross Section: http://www.waveformpc.com/lot.gif
0.5 Degree Elevation: http://www.waveformpc.com/lot_rad.gif

Robert

 

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

 

[Kevin Askew]

This thing happens in Meterology. I think they might have underestimated a potent warm front of storms but they are human indeed. Its tough being a Meterologist surely. Either way the average joe is upset time to time at the weather service. On the flip side these type of high shear no instability events are rare. If the SPC issued watches or Mod. risks everytime these setups occur 9.5 out of 10 times they dont materilize like todays case. So issuing all those mod risks & what not, the average citizen will just ignore it if nothing happens. Its a tough situation. If I was off work & looked for a place to chase...It wouldnt have been in IL or IN. The "typial set up" was OK. & what not. I dont think SPC blew it, I think maybe underestimated it is operative term because todays scenerio almost never produces sig. severe wx. Let alone large destructive naders. My .02
Kevin

 

[Stuart Robinson]

This looks like a LT (low topped) supercell event. We need to look at the CAPE values at 700mb. At 500mb there may well be little cape to be found and positve L.I.

 

[rdale]

"This looks like a LT (low topped) supercell event."

Considering the tornadoes came from storms with Echo Tops of 25K - 35K, I think that's a safe bet.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

USA Today report on the ILL tornadoes

Here's a copy of the story about the ILL tornadoes in the USA TODAY paper:

MSNBC News Services
Updated: 8:39 a.m. ET April 21, 2004
UTICA, Ill. - A tornado-laden storm plowed through northcentral Illinois, flattening or damaging dozens of buildings and killing at least four people, including three whose bodies were found in a collapsed tavern in this town some 90 miles southwest of Chicago.

An elementary school, part of a grain elevator, dozens of houses and a number of businesses were heavily damaged in Utica, a town of 2,000 where residents said they fled to basements when warning sirens sounded the alarm minutes before the storm hit.

“A major portion of the downtown was either damaged or destroyed,†said LaSalle County Sheriff Tom Templeton, who added that up to five people are still unaccounted for, including one of the tavern owners.

Tuesday night’s storm, the first deadly twister of the season, collapsed the downtown Utica building that housed the Milestone Tap, where three bodies were found early Wednesday.

In all there were more than 40 tornado sightings in Illinois, Indiana and Oklahoma, according to cable TV’s Weather channel.

WMAQ-TV's coverage of tornadoes

Four other people in the Utica area, including three children, were hospitalized with injuries, officials said. Violent storms also ripped through central Indiana, injuring at least eight people.

Authorities said from three to six people suffered minor injuries in Jamestown, northwest of Indianapolis, where about a dozen homes were damaged. One person was injured when a tractor-trailer was blown off Interstate 74 in Boone County. The storm reportedly blew as many as four semitrailers off the highway.

Rescuers in Utica, searching through the rubble of the Milestone, were hampered because the building was made of sandstone and crumbled easily.

“The structure is not stable,†Bernard said.

Templeton said officials could not give an accurate account of injuries or how many homes or buildings were damaged until sometime after sunrise.

“We’re holding out some hope that we’ll still find some people alive,†he said.

Generators roared overnight, supplying power to rescue workers toiling in the town left in the dark. Yellow police tape also cordoned off several downtown blocks where the heaviest damage occurred.

Dozens of buildings in a three- to four-block area were damaged, several collapsed in piles of brick and splintered wood, said state Trooper Tim Reppin.

“This would equate to what I saw in Plainfield 10 or 15 years ago,†Reppin said, referring to the Aug. 28, 1990, tornado that killed 29 people and damaged more than 1,000 homes along a 16-mile path near Joliet.

Mervin Taylor had just finished rounding up his 22 head of cattle when he watched the huge tornado barreling toward his home take a left and head for downtown Utica.

Taylor, whose property wasn’t damaged, said the tornado turned away from his property about a block away. “I didn’t have time to be scared,†the 72-year-old said.

State Rep. Careen Gordon, whose district includes LaSalle County, said she had been in contact with Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s office and planned to ask for emergency funds Wednesday. Blagojevich spokeswoman Cheryle Jackson said the governor planned to go the region to assess the damage.

The storm collapsed a drug store roof and destroyed at least one home in the Chicago suburb of Joliet, officials there said. The storm also damaged about 60 homes and a bank in Granville.

Sam Zulbeari, who owns Ali’s Pantry Family Restaurant in downtown Granville, said trees were toppled and cars and stores have broken windows but his business wasn’t damaged.

“It happened so quick, we just ran to basement,†Zulbeari said. “We got scared a little bit, but we’re lucky we didn’t get hurt. ... It’s just miserable.â€

At least 15,000 homes were without power across three counties Tuesday night.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

 

[Dan Cook]

Damage survey indicated the Joliet tornado was an F1.

http://kamala.cod.edu/il/latest.abus34.KCHI.html

 

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

 

[Rich Pena]

SWEAT Index for OK

here is a good map for SWEAT sorry: http://www.caps.ou.edu/wx/p/r/spmeso/adas/ it's much better now even Dallas area is 531 boy OK seems to be right on the money...