Dave Marshall
The SPC was using some very strong language in their initial Day 2 outlook for tomorrow. The 1730z update did back off slightly, but they're still mentioning the potential for an upgrade to Moderate Risk around the AL/GA/FL tri-state area.
So long as the MCS stays well to the north of the gulf coast, things could be interesting from about 5pm local on.
The GFS is more generous with instability, but seems to hold the warm front well south, right along the gulf coast until very late in the period. The NAM seems to bring the front up to about central AL/GA by 21z with the attendant increase in temperature.
Both models are lacking things here and there, but the NAM overall seems to favor a more significant outbreak. It should be pretty obvious by tomorrow morning where the warm front will end up, given the position of the MCS.
I'll head for SW GA after work tomorrow if the models hold up.
So long as the MCS stays well to the north of the gulf coast, things could be interesting from about 5pm local on.
The GFS is more generous with instability, but seems to hold the warm front well south, right along the gulf coast until very late in the period. The NAM seems to bring the front up to about central AL/GA by 21z with the attendant increase in temperature.
Both models are lacking things here and there, but the NAM overall seems to favor a more significant outbreak. It should be pretty obvious by tomorrow morning where the warm front will end up, given the position of the MCS.
I'll head for SW GA after work tomorrow if the models hold up.
