Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase Target:
23 mi SW of Dodge City, KS; or highway 23, 8 mi S of US 56.
Timing:
4:30 PM CST.
Comments:
We’ve entered a progressive springtime severe weather pattern, with a chasuble storm outbreak every few days. Today’s setup will be more typical of that in late spring in the southern plains as storms should initiate just south of Liberal, KS at around 4:00 PM CST along a dry line just south of developing low pressure. By 4:30, chasers should be at the advised target location in order to intercept a developing supercell as it moves from SW to NE at 25 mph; with a mesocyclone passing 5 mi NW of the advised target.
Discussion:
12Z Synoptic setup indicates long-wave trough in the WRN CONUS, along with a medium-wave ridge in the middle and a cutoff ULVL low which continues to spin away in the NERN CONUS as it opens up over time. The primary feature affecting today's outbreak will be a very potent shortwave in the mid-levels (800mb through 600mb), currently located near Farmington, NM at 12Z, and which is rounding the trough base and will intensity as it approaches the target area. Guidance is now in excellent agreement as to the surface reflection of this feature – which indicates impressive moisture return into SWRN KS along while a SFC low and associated dry line tracks along a Garden City to Great Bend, KS line through the early evening. Shear parameters and hodographs will rapidly improve between 22Z and 01Z as a 35kt LLJ strengthens on top of a decoupling BL with 10kt SERLY flow. Moisture, essentially non-existent at 12Z, will increase throughout the period; and a 100mb moist layer should be in place at Dodge City as storms develop there later on. Thls layer should taper to about 50mb in depth at Garden City; and 20mb along the KS/CO border.
- bill
23 mi SW of Dodge City, KS; or highway 23, 8 mi S of US 56.
Timing:
4:30 PM CST.
Comments:
We’ve entered a progressive springtime severe weather pattern, with a chasuble storm outbreak every few days. Today’s setup will be more typical of that in late spring in the southern plains as storms should initiate just south of Liberal, KS at around 4:00 PM CST along a dry line just south of developing low pressure. By 4:30, chasers should be at the advised target location in order to intercept a developing supercell as it moves from SW to NE at 25 mph; with a mesocyclone passing 5 mi NW of the advised target.
Discussion:
12Z Synoptic setup indicates long-wave trough in the WRN CONUS, along with a medium-wave ridge in the middle and a cutoff ULVL low which continues to spin away in the NERN CONUS as it opens up over time. The primary feature affecting today's outbreak will be a very potent shortwave in the mid-levels (800mb through 600mb), currently located near Farmington, NM at 12Z, and which is rounding the trough base and will intensity as it approaches the target area. Guidance is now in excellent agreement as to the surface reflection of this feature – which indicates impressive moisture return into SWRN KS along while a SFC low and associated dry line tracks along a Garden City to Great Bend, KS line through the early evening. Shear parameters and hodographs will rapidly improve between 22Z and 01Z as a 35kt LLJ strengthens on top of a decoupling BL with 10kt SERLY flow. Moisture, essentially non-existent at 12Z, will increase throughout the period; and a 100mb moist layer should be in place at Dodge City as storms develop there later on. Thls layer should taper to about 50mb in depth at Garden City; and 20mb along the KS/CO border.
- bill
