3/9/06 FCST: Mid- and Lower-Mississippi River Valley

[David Wolfson]

I'll leave the high-risk alarm-bell forecasting to the experts; but what impresses me most is how little things have changed in four days. I would want to be in or a bit southeast of Cairo, IL, tomorrow afternoon. You're on the nose of many of the severe parameters and just ahead of the surface low. The models are a little pessimistic about getting enough theta-e up there to do damage, but the vigorous low-level jet will have had plenty of time to work and methinks the models aren't giving it enough credit. FWIWl

 

[Josh Dunnigan]

3/9/06 SRN IL

Planning on heading down towards Cairo Illinois tomorrow or somewhere in the vicinity. I live in Williamson Co so it's only about a 45 minute drive to get down there... don't have to work tomorrow so might make a day trip out of it. The Alexander County area seems to get the brunt of every major storm system that comes through this area.

 

[beaudodson]

There is an area from Pulaski County through Northern Massac County that has been hit repeatedly over the years. Good luck on your chase tomorrow. I am in Paducah and will be watching it unfold here.

Storms will be moving pretty fast...won't be easy to chase. Intercept might be a better word.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Will be out after 2pm. Our target so far looks to be the SE MO. area Sikeston then towards paducah or NE to marion Illonois. Looks like a primed area. May get some local enhanced shear on nose of mid level jet to enhance rotation in Far So. Illinois. Good luck to all the chasers spotters & be safe

 

[Brett Adair]

Leaving my Central AL location at around 6AM to head towards Central MS to hope some initiation occurs as the cap weakens on the nose of the mid level jet max. JAN believes that they are in for a big outbreak with some strong/violent tornadoes possible. If we get ANYTHING ahead of the squall, I would tend to agree.

 

[Scott Olson]

Well after the last two days not producing much it seems like tommorow may reverse the trend. I see our surface low & associated features are back to moving quicker, putting the low in IL by 0z at 986mb. It appears that by 18z that we should have a squall line, but between 12z-18z some isolated storms could be present. Cap gives way quite quickly across a large region, most importantly the large convective line that shows up at 9z in OK/TX begins moving into AR/LA. Best chance for isolated appears to be either the intial storms in OK/TX around 6z-15z before they consolidate and then if any storms can form in advance of the line. The amount of instability avaliable is definately in question so Lousiana/Mississippi seems like the best location with higher dewpoints juxtaposed with good helicites. Supercells may be the favored mode intially over E OK towards the towards the NW AR/SW MO espically between 9z-15z.