3/31/06 FCST: N. Texas

Having not yet looked at any model data, Im not all up on Fridays severe weather event and magnitude though I have noticed the SPC has slight risk area for the region. That said, I thought I would go ahead and start a fcst thread on this.
From what I got from the overnight AFD, it looks as if Thursdays front will stall somewhere along the Red River/N. Texas and retreat back as a warm front and act as a focus for convective activity on Friday. To what degree, I am yet uncertain. I think a lot will depend on what happens Thursday.
 
It looks to me..based off the 00Z ETA...the front might stall actually a bit further north than the Red River. MUCAPE values of 3500 j/kg forecast over northeast TX hugging the Red River and 65+ dewpoints pooling along and south of the boundary into the lower MS Valley. Having said this though....I don't think the chances of daytime convection are that great but are not zero either. Daytime heating and the boundary could help with storm formation but I think a more likely scenario is for nocturnal convection to develop with the approach of a mid level impulse and an increase in the nocturnal LLJ. The thunderstorms might even develop further west than the area we are talking about. Especially as instability and moisture begin to surge north into the central plains by Saturday morning.
 
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