3/29/2006: FCST: Central and Southern Plains

[Aaron Kennedy]

Dps don't seem so bad right now, but I expect them to mix out throughout the day... between marginal forcing and marginal moisture, it's a no go for me.

Aaron

 

[Jay McCoy]

I am still waiting on the models to catch up to the fact that last night predicted MCS over the panhandle didnt occur and we have abundant sunshine and no cold pooling. with the dryline setting up close to the caprock not only do we have lift from convergence but also geographical lift as the SE winds hit the caprock.

the ETA was counting on clouds and has way underdone the CAPE for today. With temps around 80 and Td's close to 60 should see about 1400-1500 cape. shear is not really an issue so all we really need is for the convection to initiate before sunset. The main energyill still be west but I dont se a problem reaching convective temp and with the aid of the caprock and dryline I expect at least 1 or 2 stroms before sunset.

 

[HAltschule]

A quick review of the current setup leaves me with a lot of doubt whether anything, let alone anything organized, can get going this afternoon. Moisture is meager and subsidence seems to be the rule. Plus, the best moisture and lift don't seem to be lining up well. That with very marginal instability right now should prevent a lot from happening this afternoon. While you can't rule out 1 or 2 storms this time of year with a cold front moving into the area, it sure looks like a non-event this afternoon/evening.

 

[Nic Wilson]

If I had to pick a target for this afternoon it would be near CDS. Visible satellite as of 1825 UTC showing clearing in the area and the development of a Cu field. The TCU profiler showing signs of the 500 mb jet max in eastern NM finally with 5km winds increasing from 30 to 45 kts the past two hours. Likewise, 0-6 km bulk shear has increased from 18 kts at 1500 UTC to 33 kts as of 1800 UTC, which would support supercell development. CDS currently at 74 over 54 with backed flow at the surface, unfortunately these Tds will probably continue to mix out with the heating as is already evident. RUC forecast soundings indicate LCLs ~1200 to 1400 m come 00 UTC with CAPE ~1600 J/Kg and SRH ~150 m2/s2. I believe we will see a couple supercells go up in the Texas panhandle region before sunset, but I believe tornadic potential is low owed to the high LCLs as surface heating and boundary layer mixing negate low-level CAPE. I will be sitting out this afternoon as well since I have to teach - best of luck to anyone out there this afternoon.

 

[Jay McCoy]

18z RUC has been consistent in breaking out precip near childress by 0z. It now also has it breaking out around 21z thanks to the clearn skies and nice warming. I have seen many times where a marginal setup can become a good chase day with the help of the caprock and dryline sitting in the same area increasing the convergence and lift. Since I cant chase tomorrow I have to take today so I and Kanani are heading to Childress in a few minutes. If we dont go I know we will miss something. I would rather go and bust than to choose to sit at home and maybe miss something and say "what if". temps near 80. Td's in upper 50's with a dryline and good shear= chase day in the panhandle

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Myself, Gabe Garfield, and a few others are currently just east of Altus, en route to CDS likely. Don't really have much to share at this time, just occassional blue skies beneath a broken strato-cu deck. I am encouraged by the SPC mesoanalysis depictions of ~1500 CAPE almost reaching the Red River, though I still have my reservations. I suppose even if the RUC is 'overanalyzing' by 2x, that's still 750 CAPE, at 2pm, which isn't too shabby. We're certainly keeping our fingers crossed that we can get at least one storm to pop near us, though we realize the odds are stacked against us. Hello from the eastern outskirts of LTS.

EDIT: 3:35pm -- Still in LTS. We're quite encouraged by the latest 18z RUC run, which initiates convection along the OK/ TX PH border and into western N TX before 0z. We're now under 50% cloud cover... We'll probably hang out here in LTS for a little longer to get more data, with plans on dropping south towards Quanah.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Myself, Gabe Garfield, and a few others are currently just east of Altus, en route to CDS likely. Don't really have much to share at this time, just occassional blue skies beneath a broken strato-cu deck. I am encouraged by the SPC mesoanalysis depictions of ~1500 CAPE almost reaching the Red River, though I still have my reservations. I suppose even if the RUC is 'overanalyzing' by 2x, that's still 750 CAPE, at 2pm, which isn't too shabby. We're certainly keeping our fingers crossed that we can get at least one storm to pop near us, though we realize the odds are stacked against us. Hello from the eastern outskirts of LTS.

EDIT: 3:35pm -- Still in LTS. We're quite encouraged by the latest 18z RUC run, which initiates convection along the OK/ TX PH border and into western N TX before 0z. We're now under 50% cloud cover... We'll probably hang out here in LTS for a little longer to get more data, with plans on dropping south towards Quanah. [/b]

Sitting in Hollis now, getting ready to meander back eastward towards LTS and, ultimately, back to OUN. Cu have dissipated as it common 60-90 minutes before sunset. Winds remained quite backed, and low-level shear remains strong. Stronger flow aloft is starting to arrive from the west, increasing deeplayer shear. On the other hand, convergence remains rather weak, so, despite the likely weak cap (I'd think it'd be mixed out nicely given upper 70 temps), we can't muster a storm. We've been carefully tracking a nice fine-line evident on KFDR moving westward across the area, (S and W of Vernon) and there did appear to be a nice area of enhanced Cu associated with that line. However, the cloud feature has dissipated for the most part, and the fine-line has been losing its definition on KFDR radar (though it's also moving away from the radar, so the beam may be overshooting it progressively more). *shrug*

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Dont feel too bad Jeff. I sat right under the feature you were looking at on radar and while CU was there it never musterned anything more than jsut that. I figured there would not be a storm today but I also didnt want to take the chance of what if.
Tomorrow ill be keeping a close eye on the dryline for sure yet again. Im hoping it ends up right on top of me or even better slightly West of here near Vernon for peak heating.