3/27 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Shane Adams]

This morning's analysis shed some light on a few new concerns for me concerning today. I don't like the dewpoints across much of OK/KS, struggling to reach 60. Hopefully with heating these will rise to accomdate temps and keep the DDs in a favorable area (10-15) for tornadoes. I'm not real crazy about the moisture at h7; looks like the juiciest air at this level pushes well east of the target area by 0Z. However the 850 Theta E maps look much better.

SPC mentioned the main energy looks to be arriving too early, which may explain the models agreement on no precip in SW OK/NW TX through 0Z (temps at h85 & h7 looked fine), since this would eliminate the main trigger in those areas. I'm starting to like my original target town of Enid, OK more and more, if for anything else, they'll at least be convection in that area.

I'm gonna try and thread the needle between no storms and the obvious squaller in SW KS (clearly evident by the latest UVV fields). Better UVV sigs are apparent from the NW/NC OK areas from 18-0Z, which might be indicating at least embedded sups within the mess that's coming down from KS. Still waiting for a while longer of daylight so I can hit the satellite loops. The ongoing stuff across the border of OK/TX out west will be a major player in how all this develops. I'm getting the feeling that this area of precip may continue through the day and eventually become the target storms. I dunno, I'm a little confused at them moment as far as timing/mode. But I know where I'm headed......

Hopefully cloud breaks will point the way to tornadic bliss today. I expected SPC to stay slight after what I saw this morning (I always do my own analysis the morning of an event then check SPC to compare notes). Getting ready to call my nowcaster and sift through all of this with him. More later maybe.....

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
This morning's analysis shed some light on a few new concerns for me concerning today. I don't like the dewpoints across much of OK/KS, struggling to reach 60. Hopefully with heating these will rise to accomdate temps and keep the DDs in a favorable area (10-15) for tornadoes. I'm not real crazy about the moisture at h7; looks like the juiciest air at this level pushes well east of the target area by 0Z. However the 850 Theta E maps look much better.

SPC mentioned the main energy looks to be arriving too early, which may explain the models agreement on no precip in SW OK/NW TX through 0Z (temps at h85 & h7 looked fine), since this would eliminate the main trigger in those areas. I'm starting to like my original target town of Enid, OK more and more, if for anything else, they'll at least be convection in that area.

I'm gonna try and thread the needle between no storms and the obvious squaller in SW KS (clearly evident by the latest UVV fields). Better UVV sigs are apparent from the NW/NC OK areas from 18-0Z, which might be indicating at least embedded sups within the mess that's coming down from KS. Still waiting for a while longer of daylight so I can hit the satellite loops. The ongoing stuff across the border of OK/TX out west will be a major player in how all this develops. I'm getting the feeling that this area of precip may continue through the day and eventually become the target storms. I dunno, I'm a little confused at them moment as far as timing/mode. But I know where I'm headed......

Hopefully cloud breaks will point the way to tornadic bliss today. I expected SPC to stay slight after what I saw this morning (I always do my own analysis the morning of an event then check SPC to compare notes). Getting ready to call my nowcaster and sift through all of this with him. More later maybe.....

Two notes here...

1. Clouds are clearing in the eastern TX panhandle!! And that clearing line is working eastward behind the current line of convection out in western OK...

2. The 0Z models have done a HORRIBLE job with even the 12-hr forecast (valid 12z this morning)... I mean, just look at the QPF/Precip forecast. According to the 0z ETA (the 6z is even worse!), there should have not been any precip... In other words, the model is completely missing all the convection from western OK south into Texas...

I think we're gonna hafta wait until the 12Z models for any insight what-so-ever. However, the latest RUC runs have shown forcing in OK being less linear and strong compared to the ETA. Then again, shouldn't reallly take the ETA too seriously here since the 12-hr forecast is considerably off...

Still concerned about surface Tds...

Jeff

 

[Glynda Fox]

Well, being a very green beginner who can't even chase this season , I'm still trying to get in on the game of forecasting and targeting. Maybe I'll have extra time to read this season. I can already tell it's going to kill me to not be out there!

At any rate, just to pick a target area before I go to bed (just got off work), I'll pick Watonga. Of course clearing and outflow boundries will play a part, so maybe I'll get up early enough to see what's going on before things get rolling and be able to have a better idea. Watonga just looks like a good, neutral, inbetween place to start and then see what pops up.

Good luck to all who are out there today. We cyber chasers are relying on you!!!

 

[Amos Magliocco]

For whatever it's worth, the models have misjudged precip with this system consistently for the last few days. The 18Z RUC eliminated all precip in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles for yesterday evening, as it had done the day before. Both days saw small storms.

I don't have a clear target yet either. Right now I'm tempted to just get on the road and make for Shamrock and check data again later for cloud breaks or some localized backing along the dryline. I don't see any features like that at the moment, and I wonder if the surface is going to look wacky for a few hours in the wake of that initial impulse moving through--the subsidence on the backside. Right now, clouds look thinnest in extreme southwest Oklahoma, but that may soon fill in from this new, low level stuff forming in the eastern Texas panhandle. I'm on a slow connection and can't loop anything to look for secondary impulses for later today. Guess I'll be going on faith---LOL.

Amos

 

[Jay McCoy]

The morning precip really worried me but it is moving out pretty quick and there is alot of clearing in the east panhandle. the dryline is still way west and should start moving east and be just west of the border by 18z. I will probably set up between shamrock and elk city. plenty of north/south options. I will just have to wait and see where the dryline and those outflow bounderies set up. I cant leave amarillo until about noon (work) but should be in target area by 2pm. If you see a white explorer with red/blue lights, stop and say hey. good luck everybody.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

I'm narrowing my target region to the Red River valley of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Central and northern Oklahoma look pretty hopelessly socked in with clouds and precip. Objective analyses indicate a narrow north-south instability axis across the eastern TX panhandle east of the dryline and west of the rain-cooled, cloudy, stable air to the east.

The tongue is a little narrow for now, but the best clearing on satellite appears to be developing in the far southeast TX panhandle and far western north Texas. As the lead vort max lifts out this morning, that area will continue to be the mostly likely area to see any sustained clearing skies, and I expect the largest area of co-existing instability and supercell shear will be over the southwest corner of Oklahoma and western North Texas this afternoon.

I'm "virtually" driving to Snyder, Oklahoma. Call in your reports!

 

[Blake Naftel]

Currently in ITC attm; after driving overnight from DSM. Still holding out hope, albeit barely, of getting on initial convection across SW OK. Current satellite shows a gap between ongoing convection (which I noted last night before hitting the sack around 4am in the C. TX. PAN), alas... holding out hope for more than a grungefest.

The "YUK" model is "whacked out and trippin" according to my chase partner attm - meaning it's undependable as to how it will handle the 18Z-and beyond period.... soooooo, not depending too heavily on that attm.

In the short term; about to experience some grungy hailers in ITC... hoping this isn't the show of the day. Initial target for later this afternoon... Clinton, OK.

..Blake..

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I'm still sticking with SW OK/N TX and I'm targeting Snyder, OK. I think the shows gonna be there today with the most clearing, leaving out very soon.

 

[Angie Norris]

Well, it just doesn't look that good...
Hopefully, after this morning's convection clears out, there will be sufficient clearing and warming to get storms to fire on the dryline, before the next squall line forms. If I was out there with y'all, think I'd be sitting close to Kingfisher, OK...would be able to run east with the line for a while.
Good luck, happy hunting and safe travels to all who are out today...definitely with y'all in spirit today!!

Cyber-chasing from TN.....
Angie

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Since I am sick and broke (and sick of being broke) and the Chase target was down, I will just post that my pick was Stillwater, OK.
Good luck to all ya'll out in the field today!!!!