3/27-3/29 Blizzard

[Jay McCoy]

Steve Miller is showing a small pile-up we are working on I-40 on the east side of town. about 10 cars and 3-4 semis. Luckily I was sent home to grab some food and a quick nap since I have been out since 530am and have to be back out at 7pm for when all this sluch freezes back up.

Starting to get the wrap around snows with heavy snow ans at times almost white out conditions again. I-40 is closed from amarillo west as are all roads north and west of amarillo. 287 from amarillo north and 1061 towards channing is closed also.

 

[Michael Boyd]

Snow was never forecasted to start this early in Oklahoma City anyhow guys. Winter Storm Warning doesn't officially kick in, for OKC, until 7:00pm this evening...

I'm still holding onto the significant snowfall as the low continues to progress with higher totals on the northwestern sides of the metro as has always been the forecast.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Regarding snow chances in central Oklahoma, what we're getting right now is warm conveyor belt + isentropic lift + upper divergence/ascent as we're still well east of the mid/upper level low. The wintry stuff will be coming in after midnight and onward past dawn Saturday as the wraparound / deformation zone gets advected southward in the wake of the mid-level low (i.e. basically what's in the Lubbock-Plainview area moves to Oklahoma). I am not sure what the distribution of vertical velocities will be once we get in the wake of the mid and upper-level low, as this gets into cold conveyor belt stuff which unfortunately I am not as well versed on, so I really don't have a good feel for how far south or west the wraparound will reach. Maybe someone can shed light on this.

But I think what's happening in the PVW-CDS area right now holds some clues to what OKC can expect in the morning.

Tim

 

[Steve Miller]

I don't know what it will do and have never been able to amateurishly (<--yes, that IS a word) forecast winter weather. I will say it seemed everyone (NWS/media) was on the same page with a 6pm arrival of the freezing line. That said, if it's warmer than expected at some level of the atmosphere or another, well, I guess we'll miss out on snow in OKC. Regardless, I'm running updates through my blog of live streams and other info.
You can see SMTX's pile-up stream by clicking HERE

 

[Andrew Francis]

Yeah I am pretty optimistic about getting some good snowfall here in the OKC Metro. However I don't think I can kid myself to think the wrap-around from the low is going to be able to have enough time/intesity to drop those amounts of snow.

I think with nightfall tonight we will have an all change to snow and pending on where the low tracks - I think the northern arc and the western sides close to the low will have the heaviest bands and where that will track I have no idea...

I am not very good @ these either. It seems its just a big toss up when you're talking about the low's wrap around activity.

I remeber a few years back with a system like this around the same time frame we had rain all night and they did not expect any snow. We all woke up to about 4 inches of wet snow here in OKC and no one had expected it. This was all from a small area in the wrap around being below freezing, we got lucky that day - on visible satellite that afternoon you could see the thin line of snowpack right through the middle of the state.


EDIT* While typing this my temperature meter dropped another degrees! lol 34 gogogo!

 

[John Farley]

It is now looking like the St. Louis area could get in on the act. Last night's model runs kept the snow north and west of STL, but this morning both the NAM and GFS showed a secondary deformation zone developing just northeast of STL late Saturday, then wrapping southwest, bringing a band of heavy precipitation southwest right over the metro area. And both models show rain chaing to snow around midnight Saturday, with a period of heavy snow from then until around sunrise.

The STL NWS has now extended the winter storm watch to include the metro area, and mentions the potential for rapid snow accumulations. I am not sure whether or how the infusion of warm air some have mentioned around the OKC area might affect this setup, but if the models verify, we should be in for an impressive storm, and with such a setup I would not even be surprised at a little thundersnow. Time will tell.

 

[Chuck Robertson]

The snowfall from this storm has not been overly impressive - yet. Its been snowing most of the time since about 6am here in the eastern TX PH, and we have only picked up maybe about 3 inches. It seems that the precipitation pattern has had a lot of trouble staying "filled in" all day, at least in this neck of the woods. Perhaps some dry air has been entrained at some level causing large holes in the echo pattern?

If we are going to make anywhere near the totals that looked possible earlier, it better really get to snowing hard and fast. Right now we are just recieving light snow, but the wrap around does look pretty good around AMA. So far, this hardly seems like a real blizzard. Im hoping for better later this evening ...

 

[GeorgeOliverGuest]

From the looks of the recent WV loop, a great deal of Oklahoma is about to be dry slotted. The wraparound may be the whole show. On another note, I wonder if the drying will help with cooling aloft? Guess it doesn't matter without precip huh!?

 

[Tim Vasquez]

The dry slotting is certainly a problem for now, but any dry incursion will be replaced with (1) the upper low and (2) the wraparound precip bands. What is going on in the AMA-LBB area will be in OKC in the morning, and the mid/upper lows will track some distance south of I-40, so we're not out of the woods by a long shot. The only thing that can go wrong is sudden low-level drying, the vertical motion on the back side subsiding, or a sudden change in the storm track. The latter two are harder to anticipate, unfortunately. Too much rooting can be a problem too... you know how that works.

Tim

 

[Shane Adams]

Another colossal winter storm bust for central OK, just like this same time last year. We're getting dry-slotted from hell as I type. The stuff wrapping around in the panhandle is never going to make it here...so once again, we go from winter storm and up to 6" of accumulation to nothing.

I said it two days ago.."I'll believe it when I see it."

If I'm wrong and end up looking like an asshole - AWESOME...that means we got snow.

 

[Andrew Francis]

It might actually be a good thing there is a lul in the action. The temps will have a chance to fall tonight when the radar lights up late right near Central OK


*edit*

dont give up yet shane! we still have the actual low to pass us overnight!

 

[Elinor McLennon]

i'd rather have no snow than to get alot of ice. when the media makes so much hype about an approaching system(winter or severe weather) i must admit that i have shane's attitude..."i'll believe it when i see it"!
i'm venturing to guess maybe 2" on north side of edmond.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Oh and freezing now in Edmond. 32 on the money.

Now if we could get precip... rofl


Oh and the NWS dropped the WSW for all northeast oklahoma and all of southwest missouri - All previously under a winter storm watch. Now they just have a travelors advisory in place.

 

[Elinor McLennon]

My husband just came in from work. Said Portland(hwy 74) was slick. He said roads were slick to May Ave and just wet from there. That was about 15 min ago.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Another colossal winter storm bust for central OK, just like this same time last year. We're getting dry-slotted from hell as I type. The stuff wrapping around in the panhandle is never going to make it here...so once again, we go from winter storm and up to 6" of accumulation to nothing.

I said it two days ago.."I'll believe it when I see it."

If I'm wrong and end up looking like an asshole - AWESOME...that means we got snow.

With the H700 and H500 lows still in the southern Texas panhandles, there is no way you can call this a bust at this time. The "main" event is still getting underway.