3/25/09 FCST: TX

[Connor McCrorey]

Well, I had initially thought Thursday might have been a big day here in Texas, but now Wednesday seems to have taken its place. A lot of this forecast will depend on how far that warm front makes it while lifting north on Wednesday. Shear looks excellent, and for the first time this year we might have a relatively widespread area of decent instability across C TX. Plus, the NAM is showing VERY low LCLs near the warm front. I didn't plan on chasing this day, but I might just have to now!

 

[Chris Lott]

Yep Connor, looks good. I don't know what happened to Thursday, but Wednesday looks good for us. Insane shear again, and good instability late afternoon. I would like to be sitting right on top of the warm front for this one. I think that boundary will be the player for tomorrow, the question is how far north will it advance.

 

[jamesmseitz]

I was looking at it and I also and leaving today. I think Wednesday will be descent but I think Friday will be a great day so put the 3 days together and you got me coming. Wednesday shear and moister layers look good to me for the first time all season. I think it possibly get the DFW area. And with the impulse coming off it feels right. Well leaving in about 2 hours.... watch the thing fall apart half way there ).
P.S. why are there only the three of use talking about this day

 

[Paul Redmond]

Make it four. I am also eying the situation tomorrow from San Antonio. The cold front will apparently be stalling in central texas over the next three days. This could be interesting.

 

[Ryan Orlando]

Make it five now. Things are looking up for chasing tomorrow (finally). I like how the front stalls out and the short wave comes in to destabilize the atmosphere. Parameters seem to be coming together. I'll make a decision about chasing on the 00z forecast and whether I want to skip classes tomorrow or not.

 

[jamesmseitz]

Houston Brown

I am looking at the run before I leave. I would look at Huntsville (down I-45). You have great Road stucture to go where you might need to go. You have the interstate then US 190 to go east and I believe it is county highway 19 that travels North east. There are roads that go west as well.... can not remember names but I think that i a good place to start. Dallas is on the very North edge of the instibility so you need to head south a bit... you as you know want to be south of the storm and not north to see the show..... Good luck

 

[sdienst]

I'm looking closely at this setup as well and may make the drive down tomorrow morning. It's hard to ingnore the forecasted moisture values and instability profiles in the region but the main things thats making this a tough decision is the chase terrain. Once you get ESE of a Sonora-Brownwood line, the road network and terrain makes things very difficult. If the WF could just lift north a bit further and the dryline hold to the west a touch, storms would be much easier to work with. I might head to San Angelo and hope to at least get some nice hail.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Shoots, all the latest model runs show the action shifting into northeast texas, arkansas, and Tennesee. What little action in Texas will seem to clear out early in the day and race northeast.

 

[Rich Thompson]

Houston Brown

I am looking at the run before I leave. I would look at Huntsville (down I-45). You have great Road stucture to go where you might need to go. You have the interstate then US 190 to go east and I believe it is county highway 19 that travels North east. There are roads that go west as well.... can not remember names but I think that i a good place to start. Dallas is on the very North edge of the instibility so you need to head south a bit... you as you know want to be south of the storm and not north to see the show..... Good luck

James,

If you end up in TX, I wouldn't plan on chasing around Huntsville. The area is all pine forest with some hills. I would hope for something farther west and out of the more solid forest.

Rich T.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Beautifull country, but nasty chase country. Its well into the piney woods. I would hate to be there amongst all those shallow root logwood pines in a high wind event.

Note that SPC has not changed focus of slight risk, including all of central texas out to junction/edwards plateau, though the latest models do not agree. Hmmm

 

[Brandon Lawson]

Hey Sam. Let me know what you decide. I'll run with you if you really want to go. The low-level shear is forecasted to be pretty weak, but warm fronts are like magical boundaries that can turn crap into ice cream. San Angelo looks like a good flexible starting point. With some good heating on the north side of the front, things could be interesting.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

Glad you liked that Chris. I wish I was encouraged by the 00z NAM, but it keeps all the moisture further to the south. The front really doesn't lift much, if at all. I was trying to look back at the different runs to see why the trend has gone downhill, and it looks like the shortwave impulse that was supposed to come through during the day tomorrow, is either gone or so weak that there is no response at the surface to help back and strengthen the low-level winds. I thought it was really noticeable on the 700mb heights map, where on the 500 map (which i had been staring at forever), is a lot less easy to see. In turn, we get a front that just sits there. I am more than likely wrong, but that's my best guess. If anyone wants to jump in and explain, please feel free.