3-25-07 FCST: WI/MN

[SteveCarter]

WOW! Looks like things are shifting...quite a bit now. Dewpoints on the rise...steepening lapse rates, mlcapes 1500 j/kg...at LEAST. Low/mid-level jet at 50-60, and the high level jet will be around 100 k. Inflow layer SRH around 300 M2/S2D, and this looks like a great set-up. Wisconsin looks to be under the gun. High-risk....maybe??? Definately keeping an eye on this one. Even better, the area is not spread out over such a big area. Look to possibly see more linear after dark, but any inputs into Sunday in Wisconsin/Minnesota?

 

[Scott Weberpal]

This system is being discussed in another thread...perhaps a mod could add WI to the preceeding FCST thread.

 

[Jim Bishop]

This setup looks impressive. I would expect tornadic supercells to fire in the early afternoon over Centra Minnesota/Iowa and race northeast. Shear looks incredible and cape looks sufficient. The morning convection even moves out of the way with a clear slot punching through in the afternoon. This setup looks huge.

 

[Dean Baron]

looks like i'll be out tomorrow in southern Minnesota. Personally, i think south central MN looks better than southeast MN or western WI, but then again maybe i'm missing something.

 

[SteveCarter]

I don't see Wisconsin or Minnesota on any threads, except on this one, ..for the 25th, but these two areas are definantly the two areas to watch. the low level shear looks IMPRESSIVE! Concerned somewhat the instability. Hopefully clouds will stay away, and pockets of instability will create a few supes. I'm thinking even down to Rockford, IL may be pretty good, but we'll see. Hopefully you all who are going to be in that area will get on this thread, since it SEEMS like this may be more of a localized event...not spread out over to many other states than WI, MN, and maybe IL.

 

[Josh Richardson]

I don't see Wisconsin or Minnesota on any threads, except on this one, ..for the 25th, but these two areas are definantly the two areas to watch. the low level shear looks IMPRESSIVE! Concerned somewhat the instability. Hopefully clouds will stay away, and pockets of instability will create a few supes. I'm thinking even down to Rockford, IL may be pretty good, but we'll see. Hopefully you all who are going to be in that area will get on this thread, since it SEEMS like this may be more of a localized event...not spread out over to many other states than WI, MN, and maybe IL.

Ive been posting in the other thread assuming someone would add MN, WI and maybe IL to it. Anyway, I agree low level shear is certainly a plus on this setup but I do believe instability shouldnt be a problem especially further to the south in the warm sector such as SE MN and NE IA along the MN/IA border. This is the area I have targeted for initiation and also the area with the most likelihood I believe of a tornado threat. I think the rest of it will end up being lined out as it heads towards WI but still could hold that threat of embedded sups and the TOR threat.

 

[Ross Lazear]

I'm sort of confused as to which thread to post in for this event, too!

Anyway, not too much time for a long analysis here, unfortunately, but things still look quite favorable for supercell development in the SE Minnesota area tomorrow. I, too, worry about the quality of storms further south, because you lose the really strong shear and the proximity to the upper vort. max, which should be over central MN by 21Z. SPC has also hinted at a changeover in storm mode to a more linear/bow-echo mode towards evening. So it'll be best to catch this stuff just after initiation.

I feel like instability may be LESS of a problem, simply because convection didn't fire up quite as much as was initially thought to happen over Nebraska today. This may cut down on morning rain/clouds over southern Minnesota tomorow...which could aid in increasing surface temps, etc.

My chase team's target is heading west on I-90 to the Austin, MN / Albert Lea, MN area. Then, if need be, we could always jog N/S on I-35 or US-218 to set up in a good location. I'll be looking at the new model runs and current obs., SPC, NWS forecast discussions and all that good stuff tomorrow morning, in case our game plan has to change. Good luck to everyone who goes out!