3/24/10 FCST: TX

[James Langford]

So, I'm surprised no one is mentioning today as a possible chase day. Things seem to be setting up nicely for a few LP elevated storms in the area bounded from San Angelo to Abilene to Wichita Falls. Dew points are starting to creep up to close to 60, and a nice clearing is occurring which is driving the temps above 70 in Abilene. Surface winds are backing to the SE as well. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a hole of 1000 cape around San Angelo, but I expect that will increase as the temps and dps increase.

Wish I didn't have to work, or I would be out there. My target would be the Abilene area for initial firing. Anyone out chasing today?

 

[Jason Montano]

I agree today may shape up alright for some svr storms. I think tornadic potential will be limited though by weak 925-850 winds. The stronger low level winds are to the east of the higher forecasted instability. Looking at wv imagery there is a nice clearing ahead of the shortwave currently crossing the NM/TX border. I am in Killeen today and will likely jog to the N and W in an hour or so and see what happens.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I almost pulled the trigger, but I just didn't think the reward would be good enough coming all the way from Amarillo. Surface winds have a northerly component coming in pretty close to the slight risk area. Abilene has SW winds, and the winds don't veer around to a SE direction until you get to the DFW area. There is some breaking of the clouds in the area, but this one positive factor is out numbered by more negative factors. I don't know, maybe I'm being negative today, but I just don't see a good enough setup to make the 3-4 hour journey.

 

[Masseyryan]

I took the day off for the symposium- 10th anniversary of the Forth Worth tornado- so I am going to go for it. I am heading towards Abilene for now. Like Jason said, surface winds don't look great but with a break in cloud cover, est CAPE at 750-1000, and ok helicity, it may be worth it.