3/19/10 FCST: OK/KS/TX

[Mike Potter]

Well this is a first for me so here goes.
Been watching the models ooz 3/20/10 Hodo's looking promising for Altas,OK Alva, OK and Hutchinson,Ks. Not sure if the moisture return will be enough but stability look decent. Worth watching for sure. Would like to know what others are thinking.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Moisture just isn't going to cut it for Friday the 19th. Dewpoints are only forecasted to be 45-50 for OK and KS and the 50-55 surface dewpoints are relegated to TX. The 55-60 dews are in Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. There isn't a cold core setup either so all the moisture we can get is beneficial. There is some instability, but there moisture just isn't there. It looks like the NAM is forecasting dewpoints no better than the GFS. The shear does look really good. It's too bad our moisture so far has been lacking. There will be storms on Friday and some may be severe, but the tornado potential is almost zero.

This system looks like it may kill moisture for several days. That sucks too because the last week or so of March show a couple of good troughs coming through, but I am afraid they will have no moisture to play with. I would start looking ahead to April already, but that's just me.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Yep concur...just checked GFS and NAM 12z. Everything would be ok for severe / tornadoes if moisture wasn't a factor. Problem is there is hardly any decent moisture showing in Tx at the start of the day 12z NAM shows 35-40 and GFS starts with 40-45. Even with the sfc low deepening during the day up in the Tx Panhandle it seems highly unlikely moisture and depth could recover enough during the day for a good severe event in an actionable area by dark.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I'm in agreement with the what's been said so far... looked for the first time this morning and wasn't terribly impressed with the moisture output by either model. The NAM definitely offers a slower solution with a target along I-40 east of Amarillo with the GFS remaining consistent with its target area in western Oklahoma.

My guess is mid 40s is probably more a reality as I don't think the GFS's 50s progs are very accurate. The NAM paints more of a cold front chase, the GFS hints at better dryline setup. Neither look great and on the basis of meteorology, would not grab much attention from me.

I wrote a more detailed discussion of my analysis of the two models this morning on my blog, so if you're curious for some detail, check it out.