• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

3/18/11 FCST: OK, S KS, N TX

Joined
Mar 18, 2010
Messages
28
Location
Denton / Dallas, Texas
I know it is 6 days out, but I could not bear not starting a thread on this.

as of the latest 132hr ( 00Z ) GFS run, 03/18/2011, Next Thursday evening, I am seeing a very nice potential for a good chase in Central Oklahoma along the I-40 Corridor and just west of OKC around 00Z. Other possible areas are I-40 to the KS Border, west of I-35, and I-40 to about Wichita Falls, TX as far south as Abilene.

My Basis: 00Z 132hr GFS Runs are showing a tight area of 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE sitting over the I-40 corridor near and between Yukon, OK to Weatherford, OK ( Centered on Hinton, OK ) with pockets of up to -6 LI, dragging to -4 to -5 LI's as far south as Throckmorton, TX. The Hodographs for 00Z 03182011 for Hinton, OK are fairly nicely curved with good mid and upper level backing, however the hodographs are much more strongly veered and curved in the low to mid levels, directly over OKC at 00Z. ( Could this be shaping up for a rush hour chase through the OKC Metro? Maybe ) Storm motions are going to be AOR 30-35kts ENE, so they will be racing.

It appears to me, that a nice short wave trough sets up from SW KS across NW OK and SE CO, At or around 00Z, and a dryline sets up from what appears to be anywhere from Weatherford, OK to Texola, OK Along the OK/TX Border on I-40, and points south to the TX Border along the Red River, However the setup of a possible triple point in NW OK at or around 00Z would merit for great breakout, the better air is further south, where CINH Values over the Hinton to OKC area are -5 to -50 j/kg, and Sfc Temps are at 70-75f with 60-65f TD's, but further north along the OK/KS/CO Border CINH values are in the -100 to -200 Range, and Temps in the 60's with 55-60 Td's . . . So it is a matter of placement and timing at this point. . . .

Again, We are 6 days out and I just thought I'd get something started, Any comments and suggestions, corrections are very eagerly accepted.
 
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The overall pattern shift has caught my attention over the past couple of days. The GFS has been very consistent in developing troughing over the western US with the Plains being in southwest flow. It appears a cold front will make a run at the Gulf this week, however will likely stall along the coast. A major key for severe weather potential in the coming week and beyond is how well the Gulf can reload. The GFS is suggesting the Gulf will eventually reload, and as we undergo a pattern shift into southwest flow we should have systems come through with sufficient moisture to work with. It is my experience the GFS is often a week or two quick on developing major pattern changes and has even hinted at the possible upcoming pattern change being slower to develop than previous runs. Regardless, it does appear tornado season may get underway as we close out the month of March and head into April. Could this be an early season like a 2007 was? Its anyone's guess.
 
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