TimothyCarroll
EF0
I know it is 6 days out, but I could not bear not starting a thread on this.
as of the latest 132hr ( 00Z ) GFS run, 03/18/2011, Next Thursday evening, I am seeing a very nice potential for a good chase in Central Oklahoma along the I-40 Corridor and just west of OKC around 00Z. Other possible areas are I-40 to the KS Border, west of I-35, and I-40 to about Wichita Falls, TX as far south as Abilene.
My Basis: 00Z 132hr GFS Runs are showing a tight area of 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE sitting over the I-40 corridor near and between Yukon, OK to Weatherford, OK ( Centered on Hinton, OK ) with pockets of up to -6 LI, dragging to -4 to -5 LI's as far south as Throckmorton, TX. The Hodographs for 00Z 03182011 for Hinton, OK are fairly nicely curved with good mid and upper level backing, however the hodographs are much more strongly veered and curved in the low to mid levels, directly over OKC at 00Z. ( Could this be shaping up for a rush hour chase through the OKC Metro? Maybe ) Storm motions are going to be AOR 30-35kts ENE, so they will be racing.
It appears to me, that a nice short wave trough sets up from SW KS across NW OK and SE CO, At or around 00Z, and a dryline sets up from what appears to be anywhere from Weatherford, OK to Texola, OK Along the OK/TX Border on I-40, and points south to the TX Border along the Red River, However the setup of a possible triple point in NW OK at or around 00Z would merit for great breakout, the better air is further south, where CINH Values over the Hinton to OKC area are -5 to -50 j/kg, and Sfc Temps are at 70-75f with 60-65f TD's, but further north along the OK/KS/CO Border CINH values are in the -100 to -200 Range, and Temps in the 60's with 55-60 Td's . . . So it is a matter of placement and timing at this point. . . .
Again, We are 6 days out and I just thought I'd get something started, Any comments and suggestions, corrections are very eagerly accepted.
as of the latest 132hr ( 00Z ) GFS run, 03/18/2011, Next Thursday evening, I am seeing a very nice potential for a good chase in Central Oklahoma along the I-40 Corridor and just west of OKC around 00Z. Other possible areas are I-40 to the KS Border, west of I-35, and I-40 to about Wichita Falls, TX as far south as Abilene.
My Basis: 00Z 132hr GFS Runs are showing a tight area of 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE sitting over the I-40 corridor near and between Yukon, OK to Weatherford, OK ( Centered on Hinton, OK ) with pockets of up to -6 LI, dragging to -4 to -5 LI's as far south as Throckmorton, TX. The Hodographs for 00Z 03182011 for Hinton, OK are fairly nicely curved with good mid and upper level backing, however the hodographs are much more strongly veered and curved in the low to mid levels, directly over OKC at 00Z. ( Could this be shaping up for a rush hour chase through the OKC Metro? Maybe ) Storm motions are going to be AOR 30-35kts ENE, so they will be racing.
It appears to me, that a nice short wave trough sets up from SW KS across NW OK and SE CO, At or around 00Z, and a dryline sets up from what appears to be anywhere from Weatherford, OK to Texola, OK Along the OK/TX Border on I-40, and points south to the TX Border along the Red River, However the setup of a possible triple point in NW OK at or around 00Z would merit for great breakout, the better air is further south, where CINH Values over the Hinton to OKC area are -5 to -50 j/kg, and Sfc Temps are at 70-75f with 60-65f TD's, but further north along the OK/KS/CO Border CINH values are in the -100 to -200 Range, and Temps in the 60's with 55-60 Td's . . . So it is a matter of placement and timing at this point. . . .
Again, We are 6 days out and I just thought I'd get something started, Any comments and suggestions, corrections are very eagerly accepted.
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