• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

3/1/06 FCST: Great Lakes

rdale

EF5
Joined
Mar 1, 2004
Messages
7,562
Location
Lansing, MI
18Z NAM continues trend of the 12Z to sneak up a nice little low-topped squall line event with strong winds in the Great Lakes from MI to IL/IN late Wednesday afternoon into Wed night. 996mb low transitions across Green Bay through the Soo and brings along a nice cold front, with CAPE to 500, LI -3 and Helicity to 300. Certainly not outbreak numbers but more than ample for the first day of March around here!

GFS however still suppresses the system WAY south, 1002mb low over northern IN/OH, with icing over the same area NAM has storms!

12Z EC leans in the NAM direction.
 
The 18z NAM also shows SBCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg in central and wrn IL, with SBCAPE of up to 500 J/Kg all the way to NW IN (your's truly's area). I think the storms have a good opprotunity to become surface-based, and a couple discrete supercells may be possible, either ahead of or embedded in a squall line. If the 0-1km SRH values end up being higher than currently indicated by the NAM, a couple tornadoes may also be possible.
 
I'd be interested in the the STL towards SE IA and into IL. if it wasn't for the fact that the atmosphere will most likely remain capped throughout the day. Surface temps and 850mb temps are generally the same between 14-16c with 700mb temps at 4-6c. Latest NAM shows -150 j/kg of CINH at 0z. Moisture doesn't look to bad though with 55-57 degree dewpoints in the area and a nice area of 850mb 10c isodrosotherms. The LLJ really does begin to fire up between 45-60kts. Latest SREF indicates 500 j/kg MUCAPE mostly in MO, with around 200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH (most of which is located in the 0-1km layer). Unless they are some big changes, most likely will end up with some after dark mariginally severe storms.
 
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