James Gustina
Supporter
18Z run of the NAM has a nice low sitting over western Illinois/eastern Iowa by 12Z on Wednesday. It looks like the warm front will be draped over central Ohio with winds coming out of the S/SW at about 15 knots. Dews should be climbing into the upper 50s going into the late afternoon/early evening. Right now, the NAM has a pretty good chunk of MLCAPE situated in the Ohio River Valley by 21Z, with values getting to maybe 1000-1500 j/kg by early evening. If the NAM's guess is right then the storm motion'll prolly be at about 260 degrees east at about 40 knotsThe biggest limiting factor with this setup will be the shear. The directional shear forecasted right now is poor at best, although speed shear is more than ample for a linear segment/squall line, especially considering the jet max going over the area in the mid-levels.
Thats a pretty lax forecast so please add on anything that I missed
Thats a pretty lax forecast so please add on anything that I missed
