3/05/06 FCST: KS./OK.

The GFS model continues to indicate the strong western trough being carved out with strong cyclogenesis along the lee of the Rockies by the weekend of March 5th.. I've been watching the esembles for several days now and I'm now becoming more convinced that our drought conditions may temporarily be alleviated.

Too many times in the last several months, the GFS has poorly forecasted moisture more than 7 days out at least here on the lower plains.. my guess, the model is having a hard time deciphering the drier low levels due to the drought... but this go around, I see some changes coming and I think that this may be a signifigant severe weather set up for areas from OKC northeast to STL and southeast to BNA then southwest to LUF between that weekend to about 3/07. This is still a ways out but I feel this will verify if not slow down a tad. Rainfall wise, a good 1 to 2" not out of the question if the storm can slow some allowing for decent moisture return for our area.

Further north...you folks in IA and MN. could be in for one walloping snowstorm and even the DEN area may get quite a snowfall.

Looking further in the future, an active jetsream with several strong impulses looks possible between 3/09-3/12. I'm still in winter mode but I'll take a storm chase about now... especially after viewing some of these storm videos that several have graciously given me at the conference.

Peace and lots of vorticity!
 
To say I'm encouraged by the latest GFS run is an understatement. Backed winds, strong flow all the way up, a strong system, good moisture. All looking good, but I'm anxiously awaiting mother nature to laugh at me sometime this week :(

But, looks like I'm gonna have to have the gear ready for anything starting this week....
 
Looking at past March Chases I have been on. The majority of the thunderstorms seem to develop in the Ellis County, OK area. I Believe that storms will develop in the far NorthEast Texas Panhandle and spread into Northwestern Oklahoma. Wind profiles shows exellent shear in the atmosphere on March 3rd in this area. My only concern that I have that will limit Severe Storms is the Temperatures. I do think that the temps will stay around 60 degrees. Moisture return should not be a problem in my opinion. March 3rd is just going to be a warm up day. March 5th looks more intersting with more boundaries in place. If I was going to make a target area right now, it would have to be Follet, TX or Vici, OK.
 
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