2026-03-06 EVENT: OK/KS/MO/IA

[Dan Robinson]

The first potentially major chase event in the Great Plains this spring will be the second of a two-day sequence brought by the western longwave trough as a potent shortwave ejects into the southern/central Plains on Friday, March 6.

The GFS paints the most favorable picture for tornadoes, with not only a negatively-tilted wave wrapping the warm sector back into the surface low near Sioux City, but the dryline is shown being the initiating boundary all the way up into the low. The Euro, GEFS ensembles and the NAM however depict a much less appealing configuration, with the wave remaining positively tilted and boundary-parallel flow over a southwest-to-northeast oriented cold front. The other big negative is that all of the models have 700mb temps topping out at 6C, with nothing resembling a functional cap in forecast soundings anywhere in the warm sector.

At this time, the GFS's more classic-looking setup unfortunately is the outlier. Even if it wasn't, the lack of capping and strong forcing favors early upscale growth - and a cold front with boundary-parallel flow would just further encourage that outcome. There is a possibility for the other models to come around on the orientation of the synoptic features, but even then, it doesn't appear we'll have the benefit of a capping inversion to keep early upscale growth at bay.

Right now this doesn't look like a "fly or drive across the country/world" setup to jump on, but certainly a good season opener for the Plains.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The first potentially major chase event in the Great Plains this spring will be the second of a two-day sequence brought by the western longwave trough as a potent shortwave ejects into the southern/central Plains on Friday, March 6.

The GFS paints the most favorable picture for tornadoes, with not only a negatively-tilted wave wrapping the warm sector back into the surface low near Sioux City

Man, if only model agreement/consistency was better on that scenario. Seen some huge days result from setups like that in this region in recent years, including some pretty early in the season. 3/5/22, 3/31/23 and 4/26/24 in particular. It's not foolproof (nothing with the atmosphere is), but when the pattern is configured like that it has a way of overriding any caveats about thermodynamics, storm mode, etc and just making it happen.

As you said though for this Friday it is the outlier, and the models seem to be sticking to their guns as the event draws closer (including the freshly minted 0Z Wednesday suite).

 

[Jeff House]

12Z Wednesday models have not answered any questions yet. 06Z Euro is still dug in, leaving the GFS the solo minority report. We'll see what the 12Z Euro does soon.

Most CAMs hint at morning precip. That's not a surprise after Thursday and also with the temperature profiles. If the broader system can achieve something like what the GFS shows, then one might look for the morning rain, midday break, afternoon development scenario.

Kinematics are capable of tornadoes, but storm mode may be a mess. Doesn't look like a travel chase day. Still a boundary left from morning rain could offer locally better low-level parameters on Friday. Location TBD.