2026-03-05 EVENT: TX/OK/KS

[Dan Robinson]

This "day before the day" has been improving over the past 36 hours as more CAMs come into range. So much so that as shown now, it appears to be the better chase prospect than Friday's shortwave ejection. This is shown as generated by a subtle but intensifying ripple in the southwest flow evolving over the Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma, with most models agreeing on a dominant supercell mode for any storms that form from late afternoon onward. There's not much to dislike about this one - a better cap keeping storms isolated, no overpowering forcing and adequate moisture with 60F dewpoints reaching I-40. The signal for storm initiation before sunset across all models is mixed, which looks like the main caveat at the moment. The HRRR has been pretty consistent with daylight storms, but it's not been doing all that well with this current system.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

I only gave a brief glimpse to the data, but later afternoon initiation from between Childress and Canadian and up to Woodward looks primed. The SE winds kick in after 4 pm, I was seeing SW winds earlier in the day on the RAP which was cause for concern.

There's a slight concern with cloud cover over the panhandle which could inhibit storm development. Let's hope that can burn off and clear out.

GOES-19 - Sector view: Southern Plains - GeoColor - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

I'm headed out in a few hours. I'll be chasing Friday as well.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

The satellite visible loop is starting to show a gradual clearing to the west and beginning to advance east while slowly burning off the overhead. It's moving a little slower than I'd like but after watching the progression on satellite, I think it clears out here before long. The clearing isn't too far from the TX/OK border. I'm sitting here in Hollis awaiting initiation. Some early hailers went NE between Borger and Clarendon early with a horde of chasers in tow.

As of 23Z it looks like the sun is finally trying to peek out.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Unless something pops soon, it's going to be a nighttime chase.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I see a lot of red dots out there that are going to have disappointing rides home.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

And it could be a rather nasty nocturnal event too. The atmosphere is ripe with instability and moisture. It's finally overcoming the cap and lack of lift and the CAPE is higher than expected. Winds are straight out of the SE too.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I see a lot of red dots out there that are going to have disappointing rides home.

Depends. For a lot of these folks, night chasing isn't the taboo it once was. Probably a combination of (sometimes misplaced) confidence in widespread mobile data/radar coverage, and better video cameras that can actually capture something. Decent severe-warned cell cranking now southwest of Memphis, TX.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The thing I wish I was better at is picking up on storms like the one east of Enid. The storm far away from everything in a spot no one was looking at, with zero (non-local) chasers on it. There's always one of those somewhere. Looking at mesoanalysis now, it's pretty obvious, but why isn't anyone up there? At least I'm apparently not alone in that deficiency.

 

[Luke Penney]

Quite the hook echo there

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

PDS Warning Tornado Emergency currently on going for Jet, Oklahoma.

Large, powerful, destructive tornado currently on the ground. The same tornado has already affected Helena and Cleo Springs.

This is from the comments on Storm Chaser Stephen Jones feed.

Facebook

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Photo credit to Joseph Wells.




Edit: It fell apart before it reached Wakita. Wow. PDS cancelled.

 

[Steven Lenz]

Looks like the nw Oklahoma supercell successfully underwent a cell merger with another supercell, and the storm is looking healthy. If another tornado develops, it has the capability to be stronger than the previous ones thanks to the larger mass of the mesocyclone's updraft. Very Plevna-esque with how this storm is evolving.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Looks like the nw Oklahoma supercell successfully underwent a cell merger with another supercell, and the storm is looking healthy. If another tornado develops, it has the capability to be stronger than the previous ones thanks to the larger mass of the mesocyclone's updraft. Very Plevna-esque with how this storm is evolving.

Looking at the vertically integrated liquid on RadarScope, it appears the updraft has fallen apart and the storm is weakening.

This cell to the SW near Carmen is gaining steam though and the updraft on it is healthy.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

This thing just reorganized and ramped back up! It missed Wakita to the SE and has now made a turn back to the north. This feels like shades of Greensburg 2008.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Good golly Almighty. Chief Met. Mike Collier posted chaser video to his fb of the massive wedge that went through Fairview earlier. Are you kidding me?

21K views · 416 reactions | HUGE TORNADO Thursday night just North of Fairview OK near Cleo Springs! | Chief Meteorologist Mike Collier

HUGE TORNADO Thursday night just North of Fairview OK near Cleo Springs!

www.facebook.com

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Live feed I am watching just said the Kfor storm chase vehicle was involved in an accident. Driver was taken to the hospital but is okay.

Crazy the storm is still trying almost to Wichita.