2026-03-05 EVENT: TX/OK/KS

[Dan Robinson]

This "day before the day" has been improving over the past 36 hours as more CAMs come into range. So much so that as shown now, it appears to be the better chase prospect than Friday's shortwave ejection. This is shown as generated by a subtle but intensifying ripple in the southwest flow evolving over the Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma, with most models agreeing on a dominant supercell mode for any storms that form from late afternoon onward. There's not much to dislike about this one - a better cap keeping storms isolated, no overpowering forcing and adequate moisture with 60F dewpoints reaching I-40. The signal for storm initiation before sunset across all models is mixed, which looks like the main caveat at the moment. The HRRR has been pretty consistent with daylight storms, but it's not been doing all that well with this current system.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

I only gave a brief glimpse to the data, but later afternoon initiation from between Childress and Canadian and up to Woodward looks primed. The SE winds kick in after 4 pm, I was seeing SW winds earlier in the day on the RAP which was cause for concern.

There's a slight concern with cloud cover over the panhandle which could inhibit storm development. Let's hope that can burn off and clear out.

GOES-19 - Sector view: Southern Plains - GeoColor - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

I'm headed out in a few hours. I'll be chasing Friday as well.