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2025 Chase Season Epilogue

I think the eastern Dakotas might be my new favorite chase area in the country, at least when ignoring home bias. When I was driving back home after 6/20 from Jamestown to Aberdeen to Mitchell, I kept thinking to myself that I'd been driving for hours and every mile of it had been perfect chase country. It's basically everything good about Iowa but without the hills, and it's in the core of the Plains where high-end structure is more common (a phenomenon that seems to drop off some as you move toward the east and lower elevation).

The eastern Dakotas have been a closet favorite of mine since the TWISTEX days... we've had some amazing chases up that way (most notably Bowdle in 2010). Its VERY unfortunate for me that I don't get up there as much as I would like. Unfortunately for me, it's out of range of a 'morning of' call, so unless I am paying particular attention a couple days out, I'm often at home for those bigger events. Although to my non-credit, I barely looked at anything this weekend as I had plans with family, so I wasn't even looking to chase. But yeah, I love that area. Also helps I have several friends on both sides of the state, so that's always a personal bonus for heading up that way.

I just hope 2025 marks the beginning of a period where the Dakotas come back to life, rather than a brief aberration from their depressing dormancy the past 10-15 years.

I said something very similar after the 2023 season here in Colorado... the last two years (minus Akron 2025) have been rather underwhelming since, so I wouldn't hold your breath haha But on that subject, it's been nice to see the wealth spread around a bit (and out of the southeast) the last few years. I think virtually everyone in traditional 'Tornado Alley' has been well treated (certainly with opportunities) over the last several years, which dips back to the discussion on how high of quality the last several years have been to this point.
 
And South Dakota pulls a rabbit out of its hat yet again (7/28). The first long-lived tornado east of Winner was even more photogenic than yesterday's, and so far the same storm has produced at least one more fully condensed. And it's only 5pm.

Not to turn this into a real-time reaction thread, but what the northern Plains have done since mid-June is almost literally unbelievable. It's like LCLs don't matter, southward surging boundaries don't matter, morning MCSs scouring moisture don't matter, 14-15 C at 700 mb doesn't matter; nothing matters.

On any individual day, you can piece together how it happened with the benefit of hindsight. But any of us who have been at this for any length of time can only be flabbergasted watching this and recalling stretches of YEARS where you couldn't buy anything photogenic outside the most perfect handful of setups; where any potential marginal failure mode made sure to rear its head on dozens of consecutive chase days. This is like the complete opposite of that. Other than late season 2010, I don't know that I've ever seen anything quite like this.

More and more, I'm buying into the philosophy of striking while the iron's hot, both in terms of good seasons and hotspots within a season. Obviously a lot of the time it's difficult to judge whether the iron's hot based on one or two good days, but the northern Plains this June-July is probably the perfect example of where it becomes undeniable. It sure seems like low-level mositure has overperformed consistently, even if it has to recover from morning convection.
 
And South Dakota pulls a rabbit out of its hat yet again (7/28). The first long-lived tornado east of Winner was even more photogenic than yesterday's, and so far the same storm has produced at least one more fully condensed. And it's only 5pm.

Not to turn this into a real-time reaction thread, but what the northern Plains have done since mid-June is almost literally unbelievable. It's like LCLs don't matter, southward surging boundaries don't matter, morning MCSs scouring moisture don't matter, 14-15 C at 700 mb doesn't matter; nothing matters.

On any individual day, you can piece together how it happened with the benefit of hindsight. But any of us who have been at this for any length of time can only be flabbergasted watching this and recalling stretches of YEARS where you couldn't buy anything photogenic outside the most perfect handful of setups; where any potential marginal failure mode made sure to rear its head on dozens of consecutive chase days. This is like the complete opposite of that. Other than late season 2010, I don't know that I've ever seen anything quite like this.

More and more, I'm buying into the philosophy of striking while the iron's hot, both in terms of good seasons and hotspots within a season. Obviously a lot of the time it's difficult to judge whether the iron's hot based on one or two good days, but the northern Plains this June-July is probably the perfect example of where it becomes undeniable. It sure seems like low-level mositure has overperformed consistently, even if it has to recover from morning convection.

Sure would be nice to have been able to be on any of that. These northern Plains setups continue to stubbornly advance eastward and provide a setup the following day along/east of the MS River. Still haven't been able to chase at all this year after the 5/18-19 sequence, other than the mad dash directly out of work on Wednesday 7/16, which popped off way too early.
 
I just keep going back to this: what would be required to allow me to chase in North/South Dakota into July/August every year? I would have to sell everything I own, quit my job, live in my car full time (that is: be literally homeless), rarely see friends or family and have no savings or retirement fund, among other things.

After doing all that, the 24-48 hour high of catching these events wouldn’t be worth those monumental sacrifices. Not for me anyway.

I see these out-of-reach tornadoes-of-the-year every other day as character builders. Watch how fast everyone forgets about them when the next big event happens.

Again, kudos to those who scored & are chasing to the fullest while they can. Odds are you’ll be eventually joining us older folks here talking about the next generation’s bonanza summers in the Northern Plains!
 
I just keep going back to this: what would be required to allow me to chase in North/South Dakota into July/August every year? I would have to sell everything I own, quit my job, live in my car full time (that is: be literally homeless), rarely see friends or family and have no savings or retirement fund, among other things.

After doing all that, the 24-48 hour high of catching these events wouldn’t be worth those monumental sacrifices. Not for me anyway.

I see these out-of-reach tornadoes-of-the-year every other day as character builders. Watch how fast everyone forgets about them when the next big event happens.

Again, kudos to those who scored & are chasing to the fullest while they can. Odds are you’ll be eventually joining us older folks here talking about the next generation’s bonanza summers in the Northern Plains!
Yeah that's basically where I'm at right now. Any kind of FOMO has been burned out of my system with the realization of what it would take to actually be on those events. That's a sacrifice I'm simply not willing to take, especially after having actually been homeless twice in the few years after I got off Active Duty. I value my stability in life over being able to take off whenever I want. With all that said, I don't get upset missing stuff like that anymore. For that matter, I really don't get SDS like a lot of people. If there's nothing I can realistically chase, I have other (albeit expensive at times) hobbies that I can turn to and keep myself occupied. I'm also too scatterbrained (probably ADHD TBH) to focus on any one hobby. Even if I could chase all the time, it wouldn't take long before I'd want to find something different to do.

On a note more related to the thread itself, that's why I haven't even made it out for a chase this year. Nothing in my neck of the woods has been worth leaving the house for, and I've already had to burn about half of my vacation that isn't allotted to Christmas shutdown because of circumstances outside of my control that I had to address. Unfortunately, with only two weeks to work with all year (and 4 days of that being eaten up if I want paid for Christmas shutdown), taking even a week out to the plains doesn't leave me with any wiggle room if something comes up in other areas of my life. I'll get a third week to work with in 2027 and maybe at that point I'll consider doing a chasecation.

I've not given up hope for some late season stuff up here. There have been a few years where I got skunked in the spring and the latter half of the year kept me from a goose egg (2017 and 2021 being two very notable instances). The older I get though, the more it takes to get me out the door, which structure alone won't do.
 
On any individual day, you can piece together how it happened with the benefit of hindsight. But any of us who have been at this for any length of time can only be flabbergasted watching this and recalling stretches of YEARS where you couldn't buy anything photogenic outside the most perfect handful of setups; where any potential marginal failure mode made sure to rear its head on dozens of consecutive chase days. This is like the complete opposite of that. Other than late season 2010, I don't know that I've ever seen anything quite like this.

More and more, I'm buying into the philosophy of striking while the iron's hot, both in terms of good seasons and hotspots within a season.

This is probably rather un-meteorological, but it does seem to me like in certain times and places, the weather just gets stuck in a pattern. More often than not, not a good one for chasing. But less often, a really good pattern. To cite a couple recent examples, the southern Texas Panhandle and Texas South Plains have produced over and over the past 2 years, sometimes on consecutive days, and this month, the same way with southeastern South Dakota. Certain areas seem, for a time, to consistently overproduce or underproduce (like Oklahoma west of (I-35 in recent yeasrs). Then, the next year, usually something different, at least in terms of the best areas. I don't have any good scientific reason to explain why this is the case, but in certain areas, at certain times, the weather seems, to me at least, to get stuck in either a really good pattern for chasing where it consistently overperforms what the setups suggest, or a really poor one where it underperforms.
 
I just keep going back to this: what would be required to allow me to chase in North/South Dakota into July/August every year? I would have to sell everything I own, quit my job, live in my car full time (that is: be literally homeless), rarely see friends or family and have no savings or retirement fund, among other things.

After doing all that, the 24-48 hour high of catching these events wouldn’t be worth those monumental sacrifices. Not for me anyway.

I see these out-of-reach tornadoes-of-the-year every other day as character builders. Watch how fast everyone forgets about them when the next big event happens.

Again, kudos to those who scored & are chasing to the fullest while they can. Odds are you’ll be eventually joining us older folks here talking about the next generation’s bonanza summers in the Northern Plains!

This is undoubtedly a realistic, healthy and positive mindset.

But I’m at a slightly different place at the moment. While I have had great chases, I am still looking for that “peak experience.” Maybe there is no such thing; no matter what I see, there can always be more. But at this point I can objectively say there’s a lot I haven’t yet accomplished in my chasing career, and that frustrates me because I’ve been at this a long time. I vacillate between feelings of inadequacy as a chaser, and recognizing that even all these years doesn’t add up to as much total chasing as others have, at the average rate of 10 days to 2 weeks per year of chase vacations, during which of course not all days are chase days.

I don’t watch a ton of live-streaming, and I don’t “follow” any other chasers outside of this forum, but one guy I have ended up defaulting to watching in a lot of big events, for whatever reason, is Connor Croff. I have to confess to no small degree of envy and frustration when I reflect on the fact that this kid has seen more great stuff in the past two years than I have in 25. I’m at the point personally where I’m burnt out in my professional life, and frustrated by the constraints placed on me by it and by family commitments.

Don’t get my wrong, I am blessed beyond measure by these aspects of life. But there comes a time where one says, I’ve given everything to my family and to my work, and now I want to do what I want to do, before I can’t do it anymore. So that’s where I’m at now. With a son now out of college, and twin daughters going into college, the springtime commitments around dance recitals etc. are over, at least for the next three years until they graduate. I already told my wife that, with the ability to work remotely, there’s no way I’m going to continue limiting my May chase time just to bring the girls home from school; they can ride home with friends, and I’m already looking into companies that pick up and ship college students’ stuff from their dorms.

Would I realistically want to stay out there not just in May and June, but also in July, especially with the kids back home for the summer, including through inactive periods? Probably not. I’ve always lacked motivation to chase anything and everything even on short chase vacations, so I don’t see myself sitting out there hoping to get one of these one-in-a-million days. But I’ve *never* had occasion to enjoy a northern Plains chase season, never chased in ND or MT, and you’d better believe I’ll give it a shot as soon as I possibly can and there’s a pattern that shows some promise.

There’s more to this than just chasing; maybe its a bit of mid-life-crisis stuff; becoming an empty nester, nearing the end of a career and looking for a “next act” in life. With potential retirement in a couple years, I absolutely want to finally chase more, as long as I have the physical and financial health to do so. Maybe that will get old after a couple years, and maybe the FOMO after seeing all these crazy events is distorting my thinking, but right now my attitude is, I want to *finally* be able to spend more time pursuing this passion…
 
With potential retirement in a couple years, I absolutely want to finally chase more...I want to *finally* be able to spend more time pursuing this passion…
You stated your case quite well.
You've done what men historically have done, apparently successfully. With your goal setting, you will likely achieve your peak experience.
I've tried to stay out of the heat, but travelled to Kentucky and back, so I agree with @Dan Robinson, South Dakota might as well be in Russia!
 
This is undoubtedly a realistic, healthy and positive mindset.

But I’m at a slightly different place at the moment. While I have had great chases, I am still looking for that “peak experience.” Maybe there is no such thing; no matter what I see, there can always be more. But at this point I can objectively say there’s a lot I haven’t yet accomplished in my chasing career, and that frustrates me because I’ve been at this a long time. I vacillate between feelings of inadequacy as a chaser, and recognizing that even all these years doesn’t add up to as much total chasing as others have, at the average rate of 10 days to 2 weeks per year of chase vacations, during which of course not all days are chase days...
I can relate to your post in so many ways James. My most active years so far have been between 2010 and 2023 and it seemed to take the perfect conditions to produce a tornado and the last two years it seems as if it's almost a guarantee that a storm is not only going to produce, it's going to be photogenic as well. It just happens to coincide with a reduction in how much I chase, with part of that being attributed to being cynical about a storms ability to produce due to how it was from 2010-2023.

Some perspective though. Most of us here grew up at a time where chasing was barely a thing. I don't know about anyone else here, but the economy wasn't great back in the day and my parents had a hard time keeping the family economically afloat. When I graduated high school, I had to work full time while I attended college just to have a fighting chance in life. After I graduated college in the late 90's, I met my first wife and we started a family, while at the same time I had a hard enough time making enough to keep my own family afloat, forget making enough to chase all over the nation.

By the time the 2000's came along the technology evolved to give us a *chance* to catch something if we went out, but it was no easy feat. For example, I remember the incredible data hole in all of NW Oklahoma that was there up until 2015 or so, not to mention places that were at the time considered remote like SD or ND. Financially I could afford to start getting out more, but chasing was much harder at the time and quite honestly, you had to know quite a bit more about the meteorological side of things at that time than you do now.

So for many of us older guys watching the younger guys who can go out every day score time and again, it's all about timing. We didn't build our lives to chase storms every day. A person in their late teen's and early 20's these days can point themselves in a direction to chase as much as they want, especially if they have parents who enable them to do so (because we worked our butts off when we were young, right?). There are visible role models who live the life that a young person can refer to, so there is a path, whereas we had none. The technology has evolved to the point where everything a person needs is at the tip of their fingers, and you can stream from even the most remote places in the country (or Canada even). A young person today has so many advantages that we didn't have, which is why someone like Connor can go out and see a lifetime's worth of tornadoes (for us) in two years.

But, the payment to do this is to sacrifice other things in life most of us find fulfilling. Relationships are harder to have and maintain. Family, such as a wife and kids are incredibly hard to have unless you choose to be away from them a vast majority of the time, which I personally couldn't do. Other things like buying a home, enjoying other hobbies or even building a nest egg for the future would mostly be off the table.

One thing I've learned, is as much as I love storms and tornadoes, they don't love me back like a family does. I'm happy for the young guys that can do this and see all this incredible stuff, and if they choose to do it forever that is great for them. But for me, the opportunity cost is too great and to think of missing out on the memories I made with the people closest to me, my wife and kids (and now grandkids), there's no amount of tornadoes that are worth foregoing that.
 
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This is undoubtedly a realistic, healthy and positive mindset.



But I’m at a slightly different place at the moment. While I have had great chases, I am still looking for that “peak experience.” Maybe there is no such thing; no matter what I see, there can always be more. But at this point I can objectively say there’s a lot I haven’t yet accomplished in my chasing career, and that frustrates me because I’ve been at this a long time. I vacillate between feelings of inadequacy as a chaser, and recognizing that even all these years doesn’t add up to as much total chasing as others have, at the average rate of 10 days to 2 weeks per year of chase vacations, during which of course not all days are chase days.

Your 'peak' experience is a moving goalpost, James. I can tell you that from 29 years of experience. I've had numerous peak experiences, Tipton '08 to Geneseo/Solomon '12 to Pilger '14 to Dodge '16 to Akron '23. Akron 2023 being the peak of peaks for me. I think one of the ways to look at that is that after 28 years, I can STILL achieve that feeling with something new. Hell, even this year with Grinnell, one could call that a peak of its own.

It's hard to really define a peak; and I think that's part of the magic. Akron was the peak in terms of quality and quantity; Grinnell for experience, Tipton cause it was the first probe deployment with Tim for me. Each had their own standard. I could also argue I I had a peak over a span of five days with the May 14-18 intercepts this year. Again, the point with all this is that you're gonna 'peak' multiple times, and some of those peaks are gonna come waaaay further down the road than you expect.

I don’t watch a ton of live-streaming, and I don’t “follow” any other chasers outside of this forum, but one guy I have ended up defaulting to watching in a lot of big events, for whatever reason, is Connor Croff. I have to confess to no small degree of envy and frustration when I reflect on the fact that this kid has seen more great stuff in the past two years than I have in 25. I’m at the point personally where I’m burnt out in my professional life, and frustrated by the constraints placed on me by it and by family commitments.

Rigsby was that for me last year... search in the threads somewhere in here and you'll see my topic on "not feeling it in 2024"; but constantly seeing his successes among my self-dubbed "failures" ands straight-up misses became an unhealthy part of my issues last year. I had to "sleep" him on my socials just so I wasn't being reminded of my own short-comings. In the end, I moved past it. There was nothing against him at all, in fact, I like the guy a lot, but it was feeding into a cycle I needed to pull myself out of and removing it from my vision while I got my shit together helped out.

Most "kids" now-a-days have numbers and successes that could almost out-number just about anything I've done in my career. It's a new generation with new tools and new ways to finance their journeys. Social media, monetization, donations; all that accelerates their levels of success (or at least the opportunities for success) beyond anything most of us veterans could ever imagine. Hell, I have a all-expense-paid avenue to go out pretty much anytime I pull the trigger, and a lot of why I have seen zilch in July this year has been more out of lack-of-desire to be out. If those setups were within a few hours of home, I'd be all over it. But the idea, at this junction of the season, of being out for multiple days on end just don't appeal to me as they do when I'm fresh going into a season. Not to mention the pending hurricane season, which will burn me out in no time, I am trying to prepare for that, so being out for days on end with a 1,000 mile one-way trip out and another one coming back, it's hard to motivate myself for that.

But going back to "kids these days"... I think we justify their existence in every way possible (they're missing out on this and that, health insurance, blah blah blah). We've all done it; but it's a difference generation catering to that same generation. They were brought up in this era that allows them to take advantage of the constant stream of revenue. Is it healthy? Is it sustainable? Who cares... it's the now. Most of them will eventually have to pivot due to life circumstances, changes in media, etc. For a lot of us who aren't full time streamers, we've become to victims of this new era. And we could cite that to any number of particulars. For most, it's life circumstances more than anything else. I know I'm the exception in my age-group as I have a job which allows me to chase at my whims, but most of us have lives outside of this. There's nothing wrong with that. Even now, I have a life here at home, and with that comes many opportunities I choose to pass on because of that. Yes, it sucks, because deep down, we want to chase. And its a guy punch when these awesome events you miss don't happen in your specific windows (spatial and timing).

Yes, each miss is a temporary nut-punch; there's no doubt about that. I'm more 'butthurt' over the June misses (i.e. Wellfleet) as that was within my spatial domain and in my "regular season", But even that has waned because...

I see these out-of-reach tornadoes-of-the-year every other day as character builders. Watch how fast everyone forgets about them when the next big event happens.

And that's the magic of it... if you miss it, it will disappear from your view, unlike your wins which are always on your computer/wall/TV. It's amazing how I've adapted that point of view over the years. Sure, there are standouts that linger, but overall, you forget so many of these days that the immediate aftermath of, you're wallowing in. I think it's perfectly healthy to feel crappy about it, but moving on ASAP, even in the midst of a parade of awesome days, in time, most of these will never cross your brain again.

Forgive the rambling... I was typing this out between/during Zoom meetings, so hopefully my points got across.

Bottom line... let it suck for a minute... but in the end, you'll forget most of these missed events even happened. And with that, you can't miss what you didn't have.
 
It's very telling to look at the demographics of those who are still chasing full time in the Plains, scoring these big events into July and August. It's mostly the younger crowd (under 30), there are very few - if any - of our generation represented. That age has always offered the energy and freedom to do what is required to live that life. And I'm not being critical of it. I myself did some of that into my 40s, though I never fully cut ties with my web/IT career (instead going part-time during several intervals). The two things that made even *that* possible were 1.) video/photo sales/income and 2.) being single. If I'd had either of those two factors be different, I'd have done maybe a tenth or less of what I've been able to do.

Everyone in chasing is going to go through this - as technology and science improves, chasing will get easier and easier - ensuring the newer generations will always be able to outdo the last. I have to wonder if this is the reason we don't hear from many of the greats of the 70s, 80s and 90s. They likely were feeling the same about us.
 
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The technology and science have admittedly made it easier - but still far from easy.

And while it may allow the younger generation to have more *cumulative* success over the course of their careers than we have because they started with all this tech, we are all on a level playing field *right now*. The advantage of the younger chasers comes only from their freedom and youthful energy. I agree with Tony - it’s not about what they are giving up, they are just enjoying their temporary freedom, and may very well have to pivot one day. But at least they are chasing while they can.

Some of us got married and/or started professional careers at younger ages, and never had that window of freedom. So that’s why I want it so badly now, now that the bulk of the family responsibilities are behind me (at least temporarily, because college graduations, elder care, etc.) and now that retirement is in sight. For over two decades I recited the mantra of there being more to life than chasing, which is of course true. But I’m ready to skew it back the other way. I could easily see the misses mounting up and having regrets when I am too old to chase anymore. I see these great events now and keep thinking “someday I’ll be able to be out there more than a lousy two or three weeks.” But the years keep passing and it’s the same old situation. That’s why I’m getting so antsy to make it a reality.
 
One thing I've noticed the younger chasers do (especially the YT chasers) that us older folk don't do is work together to help each other ensure success, whether it's forecasts, equipment or roadside support when someone incurs vehicle trouble. Most our age have chased in individual silos from what I can see, including me. Maybe someday we here on ST can work together in similar fashion to make chasing life easier for each other and bring up the collective success rate and possibly provide the extra motivation to make the effort to chase the not so obvious stuff. Just a thought.
 
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