2025-03-30 EVENT: OK/TX/LA/MO/IL/IN/KY/MS/AL

[Jesse Risley]

We're getting close enough to Sunday's setup that it probably warrants starting some chatter. This is a well-advertised system that has been on the extended period's model suite radar since last week. A fairly active southern stream will nose across the southern Plains late Saturday into the middle and lower Mississippi River valley on Sunday with a notable jet streak approaching W MO by 00z/MON (03/31). Decent moisture flow pulls ahead of the deepening surface low that looks to reach W IA late Saturday evening into the lower Great Lakes on Sunday, deepening to around 997 mb, and this flow commences on Friday and continues into Sunday. The main surface forcing on Sunday appears to the cold front which approaches a DVN-OKC axis by midday with favorable MLCAPE overspreading much of the warm sector Sunday afternoon. Favorable bulk shear profiles are progged to co-locate with ample forcing aloft and steep lapse rates to promote a threat of all severe hazards. As far as tornadic potential overall shear vectors are oriented more parallel to the boundary than not especially across the northern 2/3 of the risk area while a slightly more favorable orientation for some discrete activity appears to be closer to the Gulf or across the southern 1/3 of the risk area. This will all be subject to refinement with time although 12z/27 runs of the CAMs are indicating more of a QLCS to linear storm mode based on present parameters.

 

[Patrick K]

There’s a lot to like with this setup. Moisture will be in place in the mid-south the preceding day. A positive-tilt mid to upper level trough will move into the IA area by midafternoon with what appears to be a negative-tilt shortwave rotating into the IL area around the same time. Moderate capping will be in place until mid or late afternoon when convection will erupt north to south into early evening. It looks like stronger / later capping, higher dews, better backing of surface winds, and more favorable storm motions will exist in the southern portion of the risk area. I expect favorable mode will follow. Currently I would target central AR, although central IL also seems like a good play and is probably more chaser friendly terrain and road network wise.

 

[Jeff House]

Mid-South is my broad target for Sunday. While the synoptic low and WF will be up in the Midwest it's a little early in the season for me to take an overnight trip. Also the Midwest may struggle with storm mode if instability under-achieves and the line gets all forced with that kinematics.

Synoptic and regional pattern recognition favor the Mid-South. Turning with height looks adequate with WSW at 500/200 mb which is not the same as SW there. Then the LLJ looks SSW or S which is quite enough in the South (and Midwest) in contrast to the Plains where one really needs it backed from due south. LLJ strength may fluctuate as upper waves pass north. However enough of an upper-level jet stream pokes into the South that I believe the LLJ will respond well.

First showers will move out of the area Saturday night. Sunday afternoon storms should initiate in Arkansas. The Ozarks is hideous terrain but eastern Arkansas offers the lovely flat clear Delta. Saturday night showers should leave an outflow boundary in the Deep South. I look for it to lift north on Sunday. Usually a prefrontal convergence zone gets going in the South ahead of any CF. Find that intersection.

Target is the Mid-South probably west of MEM in Arkansas. One needs to mind the River crossings though. Both safety and not missing stuff. Target may shift since we are still Day 3 but I infer likely in the Mid-South.

 

[Mike Smith]

If someone were to ask me where Sunday's highest probability of tornadoes would be, I would say 80 miles either side of a line from KCGI to KCLE. The best chase terrain would be in Illinois toward Lake Carlyle and that region.

Good luck and stay safe!

 

[Todd Lemery]

Just looked at the NAM 3km 18z. Central Arkansas looks good, but by the time the storms ramp up and clear the heavy forests it’s going to be dark. There’s still time for the timing to become more favorable though.

 

[Jeff House]

Mid-South still looks conditional this morning (Saturday 12Z stuff). Biggest problem is short-wave timing. It's not the cap; it's the wrong timing to break it. Got some scrub wave coming out around 18Z which just shunts off the LLJ. Then the upper jet which would normally be perfect, just poking in from AR/LA is wasted on a slow LLJ recovery.

Yeah at night. What good is that? Can't chase, and it's dangerous for the public. True Southern Discomfort.

Travel chasers should see Mike's post above. Looks like the best target to me, but I'm out. SPC is talking possible upgrade to the Mid-South in their first Day 2 disco. I'm not seeing it. Whatever boundary intersections are in the Mid-South won't be optimized. Probably look for the synoptic boundaries farther north in the Midwest.

 

[Jeff House]

Virtual Target: Hayti MO offers several road options any direction including 412 dropping back into Arkansas. River crossings are limited so one would have to plan several moves ahead.

Lead morning wave may exit the area just in time to allow lift from the evening wave. One plus of midday subsidence will be surface heating. Dewpoints should not mix out today. By afternoon expect an east-west boundary into the MO Bootheel - not the synoptic sagging mess, but a separate boundary extending east into Tennessee.

Upper levels has a near perfect nose of jet stream. However the LLJ may be slow to respond until close to 00Z. That's a real challenge for storms ahead. We are left with the boundary intersection, and it may be a sloppy one. Hence, I'm virtual today.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'm not optimistic about daytime prospects between I-64 and I-40. The first round of storms on the prefrontal trough in southern Illinois was too early and therefore garbage. Everything else appears to be right on the cold front, which has been pushing east much too fast for my liking. Winds ahead of the cold front are badly veered, and it doesn't look like that will change much through the afternoon. Even though the sun's been out some, it feels too cold here in Chester, IL for a good chase day. I have plenty of storms upstream, but not very motivated to wait for all of them and not yet ready to go farther south for what looks like a better play in the bootheel. We'll see.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Low level wind fields seem to be improving ahead of the line. Gust front is leading the cells southeast of the St. Louis metro area, but the northern cell has managed to spin up.