Pre- and Post-Hunga-Tonga Eruption - global 300 mb temp anomalies (two images attached).
Non-trivial difference, esp. in the tropics! This means more convective stability overall. And that much colder in Antarctica? So it isn't just across-the-board warming globally. And polar regions are supposed to warm the most. That's happen in the Arctic, but not in Antarctica, and some cooling was going on before the volcanic eruption. Why don't we hear more about that? /s
I am not sure this eruption effect is getting as much attention in the scientific community as it should. What is going on globally is extraordinary IMHO.
It has been suggested that we have had ~10 years of linear gradual CO2 warming globally in just 2 years b/c of the temp spike since 2023.
With this in mind, with the warming observed at the surface and aloft,
this could be what would be expected in 2033-34 when CO2 gradual
linear warming gets to the level we see now. Of course, much study
and research is needed, but the sensible weather now as to the
suppressed Atlantic TCs is something we can't ignore.
Some questions:
1) Will CO2 warming down the road lead what we are seeing now?
Despite record warm Atlantic SSTs, more warming in the atmosphere
has apparently offset this, resulting in a more stable environment in
the tropics. The atmosphere does not react the same way to warmer
temps as the ocean, so this is a serious question with a possible
feedback present unaccounted for previously, and thus has big
implications for future TC activity.
2) As warming continues, how does the WV concentration in the
stratosphere change? Has this been studied at all?
3) The shift in the African monsoon trough, is this a result of the warming,
possibly from slight alteration of the Hadley Cell circulation? How is the
Walker Circulation being impacted, if at all? If disturbances off Africa have a
mean shift N, this not only has significant implications to Atlantic TC activity,
but also eastern Pacific activity, as a number of TCs in the eastern Pacific each
season on average are spawned by Atlantic tropical waves that cross Central
America.
Lots to consider here, and for the science itself, the anomalies seen in the
Atlantic this TC season have forced us to re-examine much, and ask many
questions, which in turn drives the science forward. This is a good thing
net-net.
