Ethan Schisler
EF5
Figured I'd might as well start a thread on this one even though it is a few days out and models aren't exactly in agreement, it would still be prudent to discuss. On Thursday morning at 7am, a 987mb low is situated near Lincoln, Nebraska with a good moisture fetch ahead of it. Dew points in the mid 50s on the NAM model extend as far north as the WI border. 60 dew points extend into Southern IL. This is one of the slower and more favorable model runs (because of the slower movement). The GFS on the other hand, is a lot further east showing the 55 dew point isotherm up to Chicago and 60s up toward the IN/IL/KY border. I feel like it will depend on how fast the low fills in with how fast the front is slungshot eastward.
The NAM 12z today shows some decent parameters over Northern and Central IL into Indiana as the day progresses. A 90-100 knot mid level jet will push across the target region, however the storms that fire along the front should fire on the back edge (entrance region) of this trough, owing to possibly some slower storm speeds. CAPE values at 7am are already nearing 1000 J/KG over NW IL. By afternoon, the main area of focus shifts east to the Indiana border which both the NAM and ECMWF agree upon.
12z NAM CAPE Mar 14th at 15z
18z Sig Tor Mar 14
Storm initiation timing is in question, but right now I'm thinking somewhere between 1-4pm in E IL/W IN depending on if this system speeds up or slows down. This is conditional on all these parameters actually coming together. If not, it will just be a warm and windy day turning to cold and blustery.
Also should note that on the NAM, the 3km CAPE values and 0-3km vorticity generation potential are very high and pretty much completely overlapped.
SFC-3km CAPE at 18z Mar 14th
0-3km VGP NAM Mar 14 at 18z
ECMWF 20z CAPE Mar 14
While its a highly conditional system, I've seen systems like this produce tornadoes in the same geographical location before, the same time of year. So its definitely something to take into consideration...also given that two major models are in agreement for the IN/IL border (at least somewhat) here, is something. With time I expect this to shift around, hopefully westward as these things tend to do with time
The NAM 12z today shows some decent parameters over Northern and Central IL into Indiana as the day progresses. A 90-100 knot mid level jet will push across the target region, however the storms that fire along the front should fire on the back edge (entrance region) of this trough, owing to possibly some slower storm speeds. CAPE values at 7am are already nearing 1000 J/KG over NW IL. By afternoon, the main area of focus shifts east to the Indiana border which both the NAM and ECMWF agree upon.
12z NAM CAPE Mar 14th at 15z
18z Sig Tor Mar 14
Storm initiation timing is in question, but right now I'm thinking somewhere between 1-4pm in E IL/W IN depending on if this system speeds up or slows down. This is conditional on all these parameters actually coming together. If not, it will just be a warm and windy day turning to cold and blustery.
Also should note that on the NAM, the 3km CAPE values and 0-3km vorticity generation potential are very high and pretty much completely overlapped.
SFC-3km CAPE at 18z Mar 14th
0-3km VGP NAM Mar 14 at 18z
ECMWF 20z CAPE Mar 14
While its a highly conditional system, I've seen systems like this produce tornadoes in the same geographical location before, the same time of year. So its definitely something to take into consideration...also given that two major models are in agreement for the IN/IL border (at least somewhat) here, is something. With time I expect this to shift around, hopefully westward as these things tend to do with time
