Andy Wehrle
EF5
Been watching this day since it looks like the best/perhaps only chase opportunity of my vacation this week. The GFS and NAM soundings I've been seeing have trended steadily better since yesterday, in my opinion.
Pros I'm seeing:
- Good low level directional shear
- 500 mb winds trending stronger
- Strong instability
- Upper level VBV much less pronounced than it was in yesterday's runs
- Some models/sounding locations have quite strong (AOA 50kt) winds above 500 mb, like the attached 18z 4km NAM sounding.
Cons:
- Still some upper level VBV depending on the model and sounding location
- Many soundings show some capping remaining at 00z Tuesday
Thoughts?
Pros I'm seeing:
- Good low level directional shear
- 500 mb winds trending stronger
- Strong instability
- Upper level VBV much less pronounced than it was in yesterday's runs
- Some models/sounding locations have quite strong (AOA 50kt) winds above 500 mb, like the attached 18z 4km NAM sounding.
Cons:
- Still some upper level VBV depending on the model and sounding location
- Many soundings show some capping remaining at 00z Tuesday
Thoughts?