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2016-05-30 EVENT: SD/ND/NE

Joined
Oct 10, 2004
Messages
1,496
Location
Madison, WI
Been watching this day since it looks like the best/perhaps only chase opportunity of my vacation this week. The GFS and NAM soundings I've been seeing have trended steadily better since yesterday, in my opinion.

Pros I'm seeing:

- Good low level directional shear
- 500 mb winds trending stronger
- Strong instability
- Upper level VBV much less pronounced than it was in yesterday's runs
- Some models/sounding locations have quite strong (AOA 50kt) winds above 500 mb, like the attached 18z 4km NAM sounding.

Cons:
- Still some upper level VBV depending on the model and sounding location
- Many soundings show some capping remaining at 00z Tuesday

Thoughts?
 

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  • nam4km_2016052818_051_44.72--101.36.png
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