2016-04-27 EVENT: TX/OK/AR/MO/IL/IA

[Ben Holcomb]

Not looking as good as Sun-Tue, but Wednesday also holds quite a bit of potential for severe weather. SPC has outlooked a Day 6 15% for this region as a very strong trough and associated upper low ejects into the midwest by 00Z Wednesday.

Tornadoes seem less probable with less favorable boundary parallel shear, but amount of shear and instability, especially with southern extent, seems good for a possibly significant severe weather episode of a squall line or mixed modes.

 

[Robert Forry]

Agreed with Ben, but looks like a possible WF play along I-70 (IL/IN) for me on the way back to Michigan on Wednesday night. Probably not a prolific TOR producer, but with mid 60s surface dews, ample CAPE (2-2,500 J/kg progged), decent low level shear, and that front to promote forcing, maybe me and the locals will get a surprise.

 

[chrisbray]

I don't know if anyone else have been monitoring trends on this, but I still have a really bad feel for Wednesday based on model inconsistency. Latest trends seems to keep instability to the west near the low with meager shear, and 500mb speed max heading south across MO/southern IL where instability is weak. Considering this was supposed to be day 2 of our planned trip, if it keeps looking worse and worse along with Tuesday, I don't know that we can pull the trigger.