Jeff House
Supporter
Piedmont is looking at several tornadoes today. HRRR is handling that Piedmont line poorly still. It has the reflectivity, but not the low level inflow winds or meso signatures. Farther east group of storms will continue to threaten to the coast / low country with tornadoes. It will also lay down outflow for the Piedmont line to work with.
Pattern recognition would favor that farther east lead line for low country tornadoes, on the pre-frontal trough, and it will be so. However with another mid-level wave punching out of Tennessee the Piedmont line will get a jolt. Piedmont line should become the main event, especially from a chaser perspective thanks to better visibility. Look for intersections with 2-3 other boundaries; the warm front, the retreating cool wedge farther northeast, and outflow from the low country storms farther south.
Carolina event may out perform Deep South yesterday for a couple reasons. Diurnal timing is lined up and a more robust jet stream is noted upstairs. Southwest flow as opposed to straight south is helping skies clear too. Yesterday it looked like some possible veer-back but it is gone today. Low level wind fields remain robust.
Pattern recognition would favor that farther east lead line for low country tornadoes, on the pre-frontal trough, and it will be so. However with another mid-level wave punching out of Tennessee the Piedmont line will get a jolt. Piedmont line should become the main event, especially from a chaser perspective thanks to better visibility. Look for intersections with 2-3 other boundaries; the warm front, the retreating cool wedge farther northeast, and outflow from the low country storms farther south.
Carolina event may out perform Deep South yesterday for a couple reasons. Diurnal timing is lined up and a more robust jet stream is noted upstairs. Southwest flow as opposed to straight south is helping skies clear too. Yesterday it looked like some possible veer-back but it is gone today. Low level wind fields remain robust.
