2015-06-06 EVENT: NE/KS/IA/MO/CO

[Dean Baron]

Tomorrow is starting to look rather interesting. The last few NAM runs have been showing strong instability building over southwest IA, southeast NE, northwest MO, and northeast KS, depending on which run you look at. The 12z NAM shows the instability over southeast NE southward into KS with strong to extreme MLCAPE values in the 3000-4000 range in the strongest corridor. Surface winds have been looking better the last couple runs which are backing more than they were yesterday. 0-3km helicities look to have a pretty good overlap with the strongest instability, although 0-1km helicities aren't great. Regardless, forecast soundings show decent low level turning. H5 winds are meager with maybe 30 kts but the H7 winds look pretty decent. Moisture doesn't look to be much of a problem. Considering we are transitioning into the summer time high instability/low shear setups this one doesn't look too bad. Neither the 0z or 6z 4km NAM broke out any precip over this area which makes me think convergence may be an issue, but I don't know if that's true or not. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the SPC handles the 17:30 SWODY2.

 

[Royce Sheibal]

I'll write another forecast tomorrow morning, most likely, but this is starting to feel like the boy who cried wolf in Nebraska this year. This will be the 5th or 6th day of 2-3k Cape forecast (or even 4-5k), and not realized due to morning convection, or plenty of cape, but poop shear. Thankfully I've only had one chase this year, a bust (cell went tor after dark and I had gone home), but I can't shake the feeling this will be another letdown.

On the other hand....the setup is decent, SPC isn't confident on tor's so far, and neither am I, but a slow southeastward moving MCS isn't the kiss of death. Keep in mind, if the cape is enough, I've seen these sorts of systems drop numerous strong tors in train-style fashion for several hours, even late into the night. The Bennington, NE tornado that took out the school back in the late 90's (before I could drive) was a similar case. The downside is I don't think we're gonna get to 85-90 tomorrow, which is what it takes for these types of setups to really produce.

If we can get the morning convection to clear on the south side of the stationary front and get temps up near 85 with the likely 70ish DP's we might see action. I'll be at the aptly named Omaha Storm Chasers baseball game tomorrow afternoon....so odds are SPC will issue a high and we'll get a localized outbreak with photogenic tors simply because I can't go chasing. Go go Storm Chasers back to back champs!

 

[Darren Addy]

Whenever a chase appears to be in my backyard I always question whether I am just wishcasting. Reading between the lines of the various Forecast Discussions, it sounds as if the models are all over the place. So the only thing that one can do is switch on Real Time Mesoanalysis Mode and hope for initiation. SCP looks good in SE Nebraska and that appears to be the moisture axis later today. Clearing is already warming up the atmosphere and that area looks to have some wacky CAPE values and backed winds by 4 PM. Storm motion appears to be nearly west to east in that area. 0-1 EHI is progged to be impressive in the same area, as well by 0z.

I will probably be in the Seward to Lincoln, NE area by 4 PM and I hope to be able to position south and east of a target that has a chance of interacting with the front. Outflow boundaries from this mornings convection are, as always, the wildcard. Good luck to all those going out today.

EDIT: after posting this I see that Tim Marshall has just posted a selfie in York, NE. Gee, I feel better about my forecast already!