Brian McKibben
EF3
From what i can tell it looks like most of the storms in Okla didn't form along the dl. Very neat. Also, i would like to see how the models all did with this. Not too many had that storm forming at 2pm near lawton.
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2015-05-06 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE
- Thread starter Jeff Duda
- Start date
Matthew Gaylor
EF0
Not sure where to post this but, Tornado hit Tuttle's Safari in Oklahoma, animals are on the loose, possibly Tigers, Lions, Bears (Oh My), beavers, Spider Monkey's, etc. etc.
Andy Berrington
EF2
Better sign Tara Reid up to act in Tigernado.
Given the amount of moisture, both vapor and standing water from the previous night's storms and lack of cap, convective temperatures were pretty low. There was also an area of enhanced surface convergence between I-40 and the Red River just west of where that storm initiated. Also there was a bubble of 70 degree dews with near 80 degree temps just southwest of the spot of initiation. My guess is the convective temperature was reached.
The 4 km NAM and HRRR obviously did quite poorly with this setup since they both progged almost no storms across C OK. Sadly enough, the MPAS forecast from the previous day was the one forecast that showed cellular storms forming near I-35 near OKC. While that didn't exactly verify either, it was an important second opinion that turned out to be closer to the truth than the convection-allowing forecasts I would guess most chasers rely on (i.e., 4 km NAM, HRRR, and maybe NSSL WRF).
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Can anyone comment on the conditions in place that supported all of the tornado reports on the KS/NEB border? I wasn't able to look at much data yesterday but remember the 250mb flow being weak up there. Just took a look at a model for 0Z the evening of the event and although the tornados were several hours earlier it looks as if the flow at that level was probably backed relative to the lower levels??
Royce Sheibal
EF3
Hey James, you'll see just before the the SPC upgraded the north target to ENH, i had made a short post about the conditions up north. The NAM and GFS weren't showing much, but what happened was a clear slot had opened for just a couple hours behind the stratus deck across eastern Neb/KS. HRRR and RAP were both forecasting rapid development once temps hit 70, which is exactly what happened. Because of morning rain, DP's were 5F higher than expected, and 1500-2000 cape appeared in no time. There was also a tremendous amount of WAA at the surface, and 850's were screaming out of the south. 1km Helicity was in the 200-400 range, so tornadoes were likely. In addition to that, at 250mb there was very strong DPVA ahead of an upper trough, which can really boost tornado development even if flow aloft is weak. Pretty commonplace stuff for Nebraska, this is how we get most of our tornadoes. There were even a couple brief tornadoes behind the main line located in what we call 'mini-supercells'.
Brian McWatters
EF0
All the animals are accounted for.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article20400381.html
Maybe they can call the movie Funnel in the Jungle?
Matthew Gaylor
EF0
The 10z HRRR had the storm SW of OKC, but I believe it quit popping that storm on later runs.
Attachments
Wow. That is actually scary accurate. I wonder what happened in the obs to force later HRRR forecasts off that track. The first HRRR forecast I looked at after waking up was the 11Z one, so I never saw this.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
The HRRR insisted for many runs that there'd be only junkvection in Oklahoma and that there'd be robust supercell activity starting west of P28 and continuing towards HUT. Eeek, those were bad forecasts. Our original target was P28 on the extremely persistent signal for CI near there (not just from the HRRR runs but also from other CAMs). We kept an eye up there as we were dropping back southwest towards the Lahoma storm. It's a good thing since we saw some very good structure on those storms and apparently didn't miss much on the S KS activity. Not a good day for most of the models... [Edit: not meaning for this to be a REPORTS-type report. I'll get around to writing a more comprehensive report with pics later]
