2014-12-14 FCST: OK/TX/KS/CO

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Interesting setup tomorrow considering how far west and how late in the year it is. It is not hard to find things wrong with the setup, but there is enough right, that it is worth watching.

The cold core (500mb -22 across SW KS) is my focus due to proximity and playing a warm sector that gets worked over in the morning rarely works out for me. SW KS looks like the only place a daytime tornado is possible. Warm sector goes up too close to dark or after also. Dew points could be better in SW KS ranging from 45-low 50s. Not great, but has worked in the past - (http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2008/11/mike-umscheid-catches-november-wedge.html). Also look at 10-16-07 in the TX panhandle, though it was after dark with 45 dew point. Hodograph was much better for that November day as there was no veer-back-veer that day, like tomorrow. It looks to be about 55/45 near Liberal when it starts firing near the low if the NAM is right. The fact it will be 55/45 would scare most away from this setup.

Honestly it is hard to find a hodo that looks good (or even decent) anywhere north of the OK border, like this one for 21z at DDC (http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=00|NAM|SGP|con|sbcape|21|*123,136*|false). Wakita, OK after dark is probably one of the better ones - (http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=00|NAM|SGP|con|sbcape|24|*141,129*|false)

Probably the most driving factor to chase this setup is my lack of a December tornado and previous misses on cold core events (like the missing the one linked above by 30 miles). Will be watching the surface obs early in the morning and probably make the call then if I should drive north or not. One thing is for sure, I am not going to let 2014 troll me just before the year ends close to home when gas is only $2 a gallon.

 

[James Gustina]

RAP has been continually progging higher instability further south on the dryline arc near Lawton but the shear is unidirectional at best on most of the short-range models last I looked further south. The moisture corridor looks particularly narrow and that VBV profile further north onto the High Plains is worrisome especially if these storms are going to maintain themselves without much of a thermodynamic environment to speak of. Foggy/overcast conditions holding down sfc temps is another real issue especially from I-40 north into Kansas. I'd still probably venture to Liberal or Pratt but cold core events like this give me considerable pause when neither end of the setup has more than one redeeming factor.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Not super keen on cold core because it doesn't look like the moisture is really wrapping around the low and getting underneath that super cold air aloft. Maybe it is a little north of DDC almost to I-70, but it looks really marginal even for a cold core. I like to look at the LI's for cold core setups and usually there's a nice little bullseye of at least -5 on a decent CC play, but we're barely getting -2 near the stacked low.

I'm looking more at the warm sector in northern OK. If the 700 mb dry slot can clear some of the clouds off the dryline, and a lobe of that really cold air aloft pivots over the boundary, we could see some rapid destabilzation with modest values, but rather fat cape and lots of low level cape. 3/8/2010 Hammon, OK event comes to mind if that happens, but might be a bit of a wishcast. Might have some low topped storms right on the dryline with sunny skies behind them, which would at least make for some pretty convection if not a shot at a funnel or tornado. Sitting in Enid now, but may run a little north or west depending on when, where, and if that clearing occurs.

 

[Mike Tobin]

Chickasha had a minor drop but didnt stay around long. It was a last min chase so no camera and no video but god was it worth the drive.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I'm pretty sure we agreed to merge Forecast, Reports, and Discussion threads into one thread. If not, move it.

So looks like today paid off if you were in the right spot. But looking at SN icons, most people weren't. I don't think if I was out chasing I would've chosen central OK or SC KS, but instead up near Buffalo, OK over to Ulysses, KS for some early afternoon storms right next to the low. Those storms looked healthy at time but I guess there wasn't enough instability to keep things alive. Then the storms fired near Anadarko and I figured those had the best shot at something being in the better instability axis. But no, it was the storm near Harper, KS that was the winner. Looks like it stayed in that sweet spot of decent CAPE and good backed winds near the low. I'm not sure who shot it, but there's a blurry pic of a nice fat, almost wedge tornado near dusk. Congrats to that person. And congrats to those who caught the needle tornado near Apache. I've always wanted the rare winter tornado under my belt (you bastards)