Andrew Stoller
EF5
Saturday is shaping up to be pretty good IMO. ECMWF, NAM, and GFS are all in agreement with a neutral to positive tilt trough over the central US, with the base of the trough/jet streak over the mentioned area. Elongated surface low pressure ramps up in the afternoon on all 3 models, with the ECM having a lee trough over KS up through SD, but the GFS and NAM have a deeper more compact low over western KS/Eastern CO. 65 to 70 degree dewpoints get pull in along the dryline east of the surface low. There will be a cold front dropping in from the north, so the window of opportunity for discrete convection will be narrow, but the best combination of CAPE, backed surface winds, a breakable cap, and bulk shear appears to exists in north central KS/south central NE to eastern NE, before the front overtakes everything. Hastings, NE would be an ideal target. An additional target would be eastern SD/western MN where surface winds back along what appears to be somewhat of a warm front and secondary surface low.