Marcus Diaz
EF5
I'll get the discussion rolling on this day because I'm conflicted on what I'm seeing. First off, I know there's been run-to-run discrepancies with the GFS on different aspects. Mainly, the moisture. It appears this might end up being a case of "just in time" moisture, which usually means this could be a case of shallow moisture. The GFS has stuck to a pretty general location of the dryline; roughly from Midlannd-Pampa-Oakley-Kearney. During the day it appears only low 50s dews before the LLJ cranks in and pushes some mid 50s right on the DL, with 60s just a couple dozen miles east in parts of KS. The NAM is less bullish with the moisture, putting only upper 40s to mid 50 dews on the DL. The LLJ has been consistent in being pretty strong from the northeastern TX PH through S NE in the order of 40-50kt. While the main trough is centered further north, there's still some vort lobes rotating around the southern fringe into our target area. We should be good enough on the mid levels for supercells. While CAPE isn't spectacular thanks to the low dews, its appears there should be enough with the daytime heating to get over 1,000-1,500 j/kg SBCAPE. So 2 things really bother me about this setup. 1 is obviously the entire issue with moisture. 2 is how the CINH fills in right at 0z. The positives from this setup is the great wind profiles all the way up. The hodographs have been looking beautifully curved clockwise in the areas with the best LLJ. Also the GFS has consistently broken out some precip the past few runs.
Overall this is a pretty piss poor setup. But thought I'd open up the discussion because I'm in no way a forecasting expert.
Overall this is a pretty piss poor setup. But thought I'd open up the discussion because I'm in no way a forecasting expert.