2013/5/23 FCST: N TX, SW OK

[Neil Robinson]

2013-5-23 FCST: N TX, SW OK

SPC just upgraded risk in above area to MDT and understandable given additional influence of OFB from current clutter in OK expected to overcome the upper ridge and CAP by 21Z. Discrete cells drifting Eastwards across the Caprock later this afternoon may tap into the enhanced shear in the northern strip of the region (I40 corridor Shamrock to Clinton according to 12Z RAP) so a potential IMO for tornadic circulation for a time.
My first forecast post so please be gentle!

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Interesting to see the NAM flopping around still with the shear values. Last night's 0z looked phenominal in terms of a strong SEly LLJ at 0z riding up the stalled front. Even the 6z was showing signs of a big localized day. But now the 12z has come down quite a bit on 850s and 500s. The RAP is painting a totally different story with a triple point in NE NM and a sharp dryline extending south along the TX/NM border. The latter solution could be what triggers the big severe threat, especially along the frontal boundary or OFB. The HRRR has been consistently firing storms near Pampa and treking it eastward just north of 40, while other hi res models fire a storm to the south of 40 near Palo Duro Canyon. Current surface obs show 60 dews in W TX/southern parts of the panhandle, starting to mix eastward. Its possible that current obs are forming into the RAP solution especially with strong southerly surface winds to push in the better moisture further north. I'll be chasing locally, its just a matter of where.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

FWIW the NWS in AMA seems to be putting a lot of their marbles in the HRRR today.