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2013-04-26 FCST: TX / OK / AR

At first glance todays outlook might have looked somewhat restricted to isolated elevated storm activity with primary risk of moderate hail. Though a closer look this morning based on the NAM's transit into the RAP period. Models continue to predicted the development of a dryline SW OK through to North Central TX. Warm front north and ahead of this zone edges slowly south and develops several wave motions along its length by evening. At first glance any lifting influence from the upper trough looks limited though NAM shows a dry air incursion above 700mb, so in short mid to upper lifting dynamics look to be compensated by moderate 'potential instability'.
ATM current thinking looks to initiate the best zone of convection just north of Vernon (north central TX) by late afternoon. Any developing cells look to move into a better sheared environment as they transit across the red river and into OK. 0-3km helicity could reach 450 m2/s2 by early evening. RAP certainly showing good clearing of skys by noon and strong VV's at 850 mb at around this time to any capping issues look to be overcome. In all honesty I think this set up has the potential for storms to be rooted in the boundary layer and further more to have the potential to produce one or two tornadoes, Lawton OK maybe. Though the prime risk looks to be hail and strong winds. Overnight we might expect further risk of isolated storms cells running in train motion along multiple waves developing along the frontal boundary just north of the Red River and on through AR.
IMO certainly a good day to chase if you live in the vicinity.

The above target zone will be subject to change as the RAP evolves later today.
 
Update; Based on surface obs NW TX some indication that a relatively weak dry line is developing ahead of the cold front. Though concerns remain regarding northward moving surface moisture toward SW OK. ATM northerly plume pushing no more than 55 degC Dew point. Whilst further east dew points currently as high as 64 degC. Based on the HRRR predictions, convective initiation will likely occur closer to the dry line/ warm front intersection (central west OK). Indications are that convection will in fact develop elevated but some scope remains for surface based development as storms transit eastward toward better surface moisture!
Still interested to see how this plays out today. Though current indications are ultimately suggesting elevated storms ATM.
 
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