2013-05-27 FCST: NE, KS, OK, MO

[Michael Riedl]

This day has kind of snuck-up on me. Tonights 0z NAM paints around 35-40 KNTS at 500mb over an extremely unstable warm sector tomorrow. 3000-4000 j/kg CAPE. South Easterly Surface winds and Southerly LLJ promote 0-3KM EHI values of 6+ over much of the warm sector, with higher values along the triple point.

The caveat with tomorrow is the spatial extent of Convection due to capping. 700MB temps are progged to be around 10C+ and the NAM does not break any convection along the dryline in Central KS. It keeps much of its precip in/around the triple point/warm front area. CINH values along the dryline are <40j/kg which might be possible to over come tomorrow.

If any storm can get going along the dryline, or stay isolated along the warmfront then it will have plenty of ingredients to produce.

Will play it by ear tomorrow.

Would like to see a little stronger flow at H5 and above though.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Just looked at the GFS and NAM. Everything looks pretty good except for the cap. Forecast sounding from Medicine lodge per GFS has 700+ helicity at 00z. If something can fire, it will be a beast. The LLJ is progged to be 45+ kts. I would make a target for Alva.

It is interesting that only NAM breaks out precip and it is in NW TX and SW OK. I would wait to see what the HRRR and 4km SPC WRF show tomorrow morning.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Here is a look at the 00z SPC 4km WRF. This does put SW KS in play. SPC is going with 2% in SW KS.

 

[Jared Orr]

I really like this setup for the triple point. Lots of forcing. Great shear profiles. Great instability. My only concern is cap. While the RAP is showing a dissolving cap by mid-afternoon, NAM holds a fairly stout cap until precip breaks out at 00Z. GFS is in between the two as far as CIN strength. But since all models break out precip eventually, I have confidence that the 3 hour drive to just northwest of Salina will be worth it.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Could see storms all along the DL. Here is 00z tonight via 12z 4km spc wrf.

 

[Mike Smith]

If I had to pick a jumping off point today, it would be McPherson, Kansas. Good roads in each direction plus the outflow boundary has moved farther south than originally forecast by the models.

I have put an update on my blog: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2013/05/posting-for-weather-geeks.html

No change to McPherson as jumping off point.