Michael Riedl
EF2
This day has kind of snuck-up on me. Tonights 0z NAM paints around 35-40 KNTS at 500mb over an extremely unstable warm sector tomorrow. 3000-4000 j/kg CAPE. South Easterly Surface winds and Southerly LLJ promote 0-3KM EHI values of 6+ over much of the warm sector, with higher values along the triple point.
The caveat with tomorrow is the spatial extent of Convection due to capping. 700MB temps are progged to be around 10C+ and the NAM does not break any convection along the dryline in Central KS. It keeps much of its precip in/around the triple point/warm front area. CINH values along the dryline are <40j/kg which might be possible to over come tomorrow.
If any storm can get going along the dryline, or stay isolated along the warmfront then it will have plenty of ingredients to produce.
Will play it by ear tomorrow.
Would like to see a little stronger flow at H5 and above though.
The caveat with tomorrow is the spatial extent of Convection due to capping. 700MB temps are progged to be around 10C+ and the NAM does not break any convection along the dryline in Central KS. It keeps much of its precip in/around the triple point/warm front area. CINH values along the dryline are <40j/kg which might be possible to over come tomorrow.
If any storm can get going along the dryline, or stay isolated along the warmfront then it will have plenty of ingredients to produce.
Will play it by ear tomorrow.
Would like to see a little stronger flow at H5 and above though.