2013-05-15 MISC: TX

[jeremy wilson]

I guess looking at moderate/high risk days and seeing whether the public does anything different on those days is a good start. Having a working weather radio and listening out for tornado warnings, and then acting appropriately is surely the best approach.

Agreed. from what I've heard, everyone locally was well informed of the danger yesterday. Even if it had been a high risk I can't see the outcome being much different. High,moderate or slight, in Texas and Oklahoma it's usually the same folk that don't take heed and wind up in a tree. Local officials did a stellar job yesterday informing people yesterday in many different ways, including phone calls. A high risk wouldn't have changed that. The SPC early on said the severe watch may need to be upgraded to a Tor watch if things looked favorable, and they did.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I have discovered while conducting recent safety seminars and lectures, the public in many populated regions expect "live" coverage when serious weather occurs. I think they pay less and less attention to NWS watches, warnings or discussions. Part of this is "social media" and the explosion of live cameras like the helicopter coverage near DFW yesterday. A man told me in Atlanta during a severe expo that his "Family orders pizzas and turns on the TV or computer when there is an outbreak." In a weird way, severe weather (and chasing) has indeed become a "spectator sport" for not only chasers, but for the public also. I think this is why some of the more wacky elements of chasing are getting enhanced publicity. W.

 

[chrisbray]

Does anyone have analysis on why this turned into a significant event when there was no forecast that seemed to hint at big tornado potential?

 

[brentford]

Marcus, that left turn like Greensburg was exactly what I was thinking. Just didnt want to make any comparisons based on just what I saw on radar. For a few wondering on conditons before the activity we had a 79/70 temp dewpoint around 5pm with Se/Ese at around 25-30mph here in SW Ft Worth.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Does anyone have analysis on why this turned into a significant event when there was no forecast that seemed to hint at big tornado potential?

I noticed the closed H5 low had become stronger than what the models were saying. And as Brent said with dews like that you can expect some big CAPE values. All that on top of a strong LLJ and that particular storm having "clean air inflow" probably made that storm into a monster.

About the storm turning, I'm wondering if a new meso formed on the backside of the tornado, causing it to steer left like that? On the SRV1 from KFWS you could see briefly a new couplet to the WNW of the main tornado right after the storm made the turn. It'd be interesting to see why the storm did that. Luckily that turn seems to have been that storm's demise as 3 or 4 scans after the NE turn the couplet weakened substantially.

 

[Albert Rodriguez]

MODS should I move to reports or leave?
Watch video >

 

[brentford]

The storm just west of Weatherford had a similar process with the tornado/meso. Should have saved those radar images also but they reported a tornado on the far west end of the storm as it dropped South. You could see the old circulation almost appear stationary or pull up North as the new circulation intensifed further SE.
Hopefully these attachments work from the Cleburne storm.

 

[Jason Harris]

Albert, in the last minute of your video it almost looks like there is one more than one tornado beneath the meso, was that your impression as well? See 4:20-4:48 for example.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

I don't think many people were expecting the type of significant tornado event that unfolded this evening.

Since it occurred in an SPC Slight Risk area, there has been some discussion on Twitter tonight about whether the terms "slight" and "moderate" risk are misleading and whether SPC ought to consider replacing them.

TWC is reporting this morning that residents in the path were getting phone calls from local Emergency Management Officials warning them of the coming storm and to take cover, and the residents are saying after the storm, they knew it was coming, had gotten phone calls but didn't expect the furious and deadly storm that hit. What did they honestly think? Someone was wasting time to call about some 60 mph winds and some lightning??? Come on. This is just so frustrating to hear from people...especially when they were WARNED! Naive and unaware.

What more can be done? aside from go door to door and yank people outside and point and say LOOK! You see that? It's coming, now seek cover!

Since we have all this technology, what about developing some sort of Emergency Action/Weather Bulletin activated weather screens for the homes? hard wired, with a long life battery backup touch screens mounted at key points in the home? When a neighborhood or portion of a county is in a warning area, they start flashing red screens that say Take Cover Now and sound a high pitched alert that can be heard throughout the home?? They get a feed (similar to that of WX radio's) from the SPC/NWS/NSSL and when in the path of a dangerous storm those screens go active and alert the occupants.

Death count is 6 confirmed as of now per TWC, but 100's are injured and many are critical or serious. There has to be a better way to get people to take these storms seriously.

It's just a thought, maybe someone can expand on my idea and come up with something more thoroughly thought through (perhaps making them 3G/4G enabled to show live radar updates, forecasts, and severe wx forecasts with mandatory acknowledgements of the homeowner? or wired to cable/dsl internet? ). Maybe I'm fooling myself that it would work, considering all the false alerts based on Doppler indicated rotation in the storms. Hopefully someone smarter than me can take this idea and mold it and implement it or something. Last night just makes me sad for people.

 

[rdale]

Neat idea - but WAY too many false alarms to make that work.

Remember that people have access to this data for free on their phone, and far and away most don't take advantage of it. That's why we look at tools we know and have (SPC risks, tornado warning terminology, etc.) instead of adding new technology.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I noticed the closed H5 low had become stronger than what the models were saying. And as Brent said with dews like that you can expect some big CAPE values. All that on top of a strong LLJ and that particular storm having "clean air inflow" probably made that storm into a monster.

About the storm turning, I'm wondering if a new meso formed on the backside of the tornado, causing it to steer left like that? On the SRV1 from KFWS you could see briefly a new couplet to the WNW of the main tornado right after the storm made the turn. It'd be interesting to see why the storm did that. Luckily that turn seems to have been that storm's demise as 3 or 4 scans after the NE turn the couplet weakened substantially.

The storm itself did not turn. It was only the tornadic part of the storm that shifted. In reality, shifts like that happen with many storms during the occlusion process when the parent circulation closes off...it moves back into the storm, which is generally to the N or NW relative to storm motion. That's probably all that happened here.

I wouldn't go as far as to say the LLJ was strong since there was really no pronounced wind speed maximum in the 00Z FWD sounding and the speeds were generally 30 kts or less. However, there was decent speed shear and fantastic turning, so that definitely helped to provide for vorticity. Having higher dewpoints also was probably instrumental since it allowed for greater instability and lower LFCs so that parcels could begin accelerating at a lower altitude.

 

[Derek Weston]

The storm itself did not turn. It was only the tornadic part of the storm that shifted. In reality, shifts like that happen with many storms during the occlusion process when the parent circulation closes off...it moves back into the storm, which is generally to the N or NW relative to storm motion. That's probably all that happened here.

I wouldn't go as far as to say the LLJ was strong since there was really no pronounced wind speed maximum in the 00Z FWD sounding and the speeds were generally 30 kts or less. However, there was decent speed shear and fantastic turning, so that definitely helped to provide for vorticity. Having higher dewpoints also was probably instrumental since it allowed for greater instability and lower LFCs so that parcels could begin accelerating at a lower altitude.

Yeah, my big take away from this via looking at mesoanalysis at the time was the large 0-1km helicity realized. Believe I saw pockets of 400+ ... (and a number towards that would be believable with a tornado like this)

The speed shear wasn't anything amazing, good enough, apparently, but it was the lowest levels that were primed for such an occurrence.

Never sleep on a setup with big dews and good 0-1km helicity.

 

[brentford]

EF-4 damage according to NWS Ft Worth.

 

[Shawn Schuman]

Yeah, my big take away from this via looking at mesoanalysis at the time was the large 0-1km helicity realized. Believe I saw pockets of 400+ ... (and a number towards that would be believable with a tornado like this)

The speed shear wasn't anything amazing, good enough, apparently, but it was the lowest levels that were primed for such an occurrence.

Never sleep on a setup with big dews and good 0-1km helicity.

0-1km SRH at roughly the time of the Granbury tornado:

There was a small area of 400 m2s2 a bit later but it was further east. As for the strange tornado motion, I'm uploading a radar loop on Youtube where you can see it better, I'll post when it's done. It pretty clearly occluded/cycled a couple of times, including once in between Granbury and DeCordova and once more near Cleburne/Rio Vista.

 

[StormScotter]

TWC is reporting this morning that residents in the path were getting phone calls from local Emergency Management Officials warning them of the coming storm and to take cover, and the residents are saying after the storm, they knew it was coming, had gotten phone calls but didn't expect the furious and deadly storm that hit. What did they honestly think? Someone was wasting time to call about some 60 mph winds and some lightning??? Come on. This is just so frustrating to hear from people...especially when they were WARNED! Naive and unaware.

What more can be done? aside from go door to door and yank people outside and point and say LOOK! You see that? It's coming, now seek cover!

Since we have all this technology, what about developing some sort of Emergency Action/Weather Bulletin activated weather screens for the homes? hard wired, with a long life battery backup touch screens mounted at key points in the home? When a neighborhood or portion of a county is in a warning area, they start flashing red screens that say Take Cover Now and sound a high pitched alert that can be heard throughout the home?? They get a feed (similar to that of WX radio's) from the SPC/NWS/NSSL and when in the path of a dangerous storm those screens go active and alert the occupants.

Death count is 6 confirmed as of now per TWC, but 100's are injured and many are critical or serious. There has to be a better way to get people to take these storms seriously.

It's just a thought, maybe someone can expand on my idea and come up with something more thoroughly thought through (perhaps making them 3G/4G enabled to show live radar updates, forecasts, and severe wx forecasts with mandatory acknowledgements of the homeowner? or wired to cable/dsl internet? ). Maybe I'm fooling myself that it would work, considering all the false alerts based on Doppler indicated rotation in the storms. Hopefully someone smarter than me can take this idea and mold it and implement it or something. Last night just makes me sad for people.

I'm not trying to sound callous, but at some point, people need to take responsibility for their own lives. You're also dealing with a phenomenon in twisters where at most it's a mile wide, but many storms have much smaller footprints. If you live in a city ten miles wide and a tornado's coming, you have a relatively low probability of it hitting your house. I'm not trying to make excuses for anyone, but again, if they got the significant warning that they did, and chose to ignore it, it doesn't matter what you do at that point as far as blinking TVs, cell phone alerts, etc. They were advised of the risk and simply chose to ignore it.

The tornado warning put out by NWS-Ft. Worth advised of incredible destruction. About the only way they could have been any clearer is to say "either get underground or you're gonna die." And you'd still have people ignoring it. It is what it is, unfortunately.